The Incredible, Wild, Whacky, Scary, SuperCool Future … and Why We’re Not Even Remotely Prepared, and What We Can Do About It, for the Sake of of Our Careers, Work and Organizations: A Musing on Strategies, Tactics, Attitudes, Tips, and General Observations, Such as … Why a CFO Should Never Be Promoted to CEO, Why all Big Mergers stink (except on Wall Street @ bonus time), Why scale economies are over-rated, How to beat Wal*Mart, Why All MBA Programs Should Be Closed, How the “2Bs” (Bentonville and Beijing) Became the Co-capitols of the Universe, Why Only Freaks Get Things Done (in Freaky Times), Why Outrageously Audacious Devotion to Game-changing Innovation Is the Premier Survival Requisite, Why Decentralization is still the most Potent Medicine available, Why Women Are Better Leaders Than Men (and They Also Buy Everything, Though Just Try Telling That to the World’s Advertising “Geniuses”), Why Hospitals are “The Killing Fields,” and How UPS & IBM Are Actually All About Love!
Slides at … tompeters.com
THREE BILLION NEW CAPITALISTS —Clyde Prestowitz
Conference = Time Out Is not: about “picking up tips on data base privacy issues” Is: about re-imagining marketing and the idea of a truly/no-bull customer-centric enterprise (Might be: about “Gasp-worthy” game-changing breakthroughs)
Re-imagine! Not Your Father’s World I.
“The Ultimate Luxury Item Is Now Made in China” —Headline/p1/The New York Times/ 07.13.2004/Topic: Luxury Yachts made in Zhongshan
“A Return to Quotas: Limits on Textiles Could Push China Toward Making Upscale Goods” —Headline, NYT, 11.05
“Vaunted German Engineers Face Competition From China” —Headline, p1/WSJ/07.15.2004
“U.S. manufacturers and retailers are shifting their domestic warehouses and distribution facilities to China as they seek to make supply chains more efficient” —Headline, page 1, Financial Times, 11.07.2005
“China’s Next Export: Innovation” —McKinsey Quarterly (Cover Story)
“From Gunpowder to the Next Big Bang: Modern China Is Set to Get Creative” —Headline, NYT, 11.05
2003: 98% U.S. 2005: U.S. 150; Shanghai 500
168/ 18,500/ 51,000
1 Houston/ Month/15
Savings, internal investment, external investment > 50% GDP
2.5M vs 7.1M 40/40
We all live in Dell-Wal*Mart-eBay-Google World!
BEATING HURDLES, SCIENTISTS CLONE A DOG FOR A FIRST: Feat for South Koreans” —Headline/p1/NYT/08.04.05
“South Korea is the world’s most wired—and wireless— nation” —headline, BW, 07.05
600,000 350,000 70,000
600,000/engineering degrees/2004/China 350,000/engineering degrees/2004/India 70,000/engineering degrees/2004/U.S.A. Source: “Rising Above the Gathering Storm”/ National Academies of Science/Presidential report/October 2005
Re-imagine! Not Your Father’s World II.
“Income Confers No Immunity as Jobs Migrate” —Headline/USA Today/February2004
“There is no job that is America’s God-given right anymore.” —Carly Fiorina/HP/January2004
Sydney Morning Herald/ 25October2005 Quantas. Lay off thousands of mechanics. Maintenance to China.
“There is no job that is Australia’s God-given right anymore.” —Tom Peters/10.26.2005
“When I was growing up, my parents used to say to me: ‘Finish your dinner—people in China are starving.’ I, by contrast, find myself wanting to say to my daughters: ‘Finish your homework—people in China and India are starving for your job.’” —Thomas Friedman/06.24.2004
“In a global economy, the government cannot give anybody a guaranteed success story, but you can give people the tools to make the most of their own lives.” —WJC, from Philip Bobbitt, The Shield of Achilles: War, Peace, and the Course of History
Re-imagine! Not Your Father’s World III.
“A focus on cost-cutting and efficiency has helped many organizations weather the downturn, but this approach will ultimately render them obsolete. Only the constant pursuit of innovation can ensure long-term success.” —Daniel Muzyka, Dean, Sauder School of Business, Univ of British Columbia (FT/09.17.04)
“Wall Street is starting to penalize stocks for anything but organic growth.” —Advertising Age/07.05
“Mergers and acquisitions get the headlines, but studies show they often end up destroying shareholder value instead of creating it. That’s one reason why organic growth is so prized by corporations and investors. In fact, if you compare the stock performance of a new index of 23 companies that are masters of organic growth to the S&P500, the Organic Growth Index beat the S&P500 handily, 31% vs. 22% over the year ending January 2004. And looking further back at a five-year period ending in 2002, the OGI walloped the S&P500, 25% vs. 3%.” —Fortune.com/06.03.2004 (The OGI includes Wal*Mart, Sysco, Harley-Davidson, Bed, Bath & Beyond, NVR)
“Analysts said we don’t care about revenue, just give us the bottom line. They preferred cost cutting, as long as they could see two or three years of EPS growth. I preached revenue and the analysts’ eyes would glaze over. Now revenue is ‘in’ because so many got caught, and earnings went to hell. They said, ‘Oh my gosh, you need revenues to grow earnings over time.’ Well, Duh!” —Dick Kovacevich, Wells Fargo (in ABA Banking Journal)