Tel 617 496-3834 fax 617 496-5747
Director of Program in International Finance and Macroeconomics
National Bureau of Economic Research
BIRTH November 5, 1952, San Francisco, California
EDUCATION Ph. D., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Economics, 1978.
B.A., Swarthmore College, with high honors, Economics, 1974.
PREVIOUS ACADEMIC POSITIONS HELD University of California, Berkeley: Chancellor’s Professorship (on leave, 1998-99); Professor of Economics, 1987-1999 (on leave, 1996-1999); Associate Professor, 1984-87; Acting Associate Professor, 1980-83; Assistant Professor, 1979-80.
Harvard University: Visiting Professor of Public Policy, Fall 1988 - Fall 1989.
Yale University: Visiting Assistant Professor of Economics, Fall 1980
University of Michigan: Assistant Professor of Economics, 1978-79.
OTHER PAST POSITIONS HELD New Century Chair, The Brookings Institution, 3/99-6/99.
Member, President’s Council of Economic Advisers, The White House, 4/97-3/99.
Chief Economist, Council of Economic Advisers, The White House, 9/96-4/97.
Visiting Scholar, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, 1990-1993, 1995-96.
Visiting Scholar, Research Department, International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C., 9/1985-12/1985, 9/86-12/86, 5/89-9/89, 7/92-9/92, 6/93-9/93, 3/2013.
Visiting Scholar, International Finance Division, Federal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C. 5/77-8/77, 5/79-8/79, 7/81-9/81, 8/86-9/86.
Senior Staff Economist, Council of Economic Advisers, Executive Office of the President, Washington, D.C. 8/83-8/84.
Visiting Fellow, Institute for International Economics, Washington, D.C., 10/84-12/84, 6/90-8/91, 9/93, 6/94-8/95, 5/96-9/96.
Consultant, World Bank, 9/84-3/86 (CPD); 1/94-1/96 (IEC).
Economist and Consultant, International Monetary Fund, 5/75-8/75 (ETR); 12/95-6/96 (Asia); and 1/02-4/03 (IEO).
CURRENT PANEL MEMBERSHIPS AND ADMINISTRATIVE POSITIONS Co-Chair, Politics and Economics of International Finance, Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University, 2015-.
Advisory Board, Center for Economic Research of Korea, Sungkyunkwan Univ., 2013- .
Member, BEA Advisory Committee, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce, 2009- .
Advisory Board, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Australian National University, Canberra, 2008- .
Member, Business and Economic Advisory Group, Atlantic Council, 2007- .
Member, Faculty Steering Committee of the Harvard Environmental Economics Program, Harvard University, 2007- .
Faculty Member, Harvard University Center for the Environment, 2006- .
Member, Bellagio Group, 2005- .
Faculty Affiliate, Ash Institute for Democratic Governance and Innovation, 2004- .
Scientific Advisory Board, Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona, Spain, 2003- .
International Research Fellow, Kiel Institute of World Economics, Kiel, Germany, 2001-.
Faculty Fellow, Environmental Economics Program, Harvard University, 2000- .
Faculty Fellow, Center for International Development, Harvard University, 2000- .
Faculty Affiliate, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University, 2000- .
Faculty Associate, Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University, 1999- .
Affiliate, Center for Business and Government, Harvard Kennedy School, 1999- .
Member, Advisory Committee, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Washington DC, 1999- .
Charter Member, Pacific Council on International Policy, Los Angeles, 1996- .
Member, Council on Foreign Relations, New York, 1995- .
Co-Chairman, International Seminar on Macroeconomics, 1994-96, 1999- .
Member, Business Cycle Dating Committee, National Bureau of Economic Research, 1993-96, 1999- .
PAST PANEL, ADVISORY, AND ADMINISTRATIVE POSITIONS Advisory Panel, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, 2002-2015.
Advisor, National Bank of Kazakhstan, 2015.
Foreign Member, Monetary Policy Committee, Bank of Mauritius, 2013-2014.
Advisor, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, 1999-2014.
Member, Atlantic Council – Thompson Reuters Financial Reform Task Force, 2010.
Member, Advisory Committee, Center for Geoeconomic Studies, Council on Foreign Relations, 2008- .
Member, Economists Forum, FT.com, Financial Times, 2006- .
Advisor, South Africa Growth Initiative, Center for International Development, 2006-09.
Advisor, Subcommittee on International Financial Imbalances, Committee for Economic Development, Washington DC, 2006-07.
Advisor, International Economics Team and Overall Economics Team, John Kerry for President, 2004.
Global Climate Change Council Policy Initiative Advisory Committee, Council on Foreign Relations, 2003-04.
Member, Commission on The Future of the UK outside the Euro, London, 2002-03.
Senior Advisor, International Monetary Fund Independent Evaluations Office, 2001-07.
Advisor, South African Development Council, Johannesburg, South Africa, 2001.
Study Group Member, Harnessing Trade for Development and Growth in the Middle East, Council on Foreign Relations, 2001.
Forum Fellow, World Economic Forum, Davos, January 2001.
Member, Advisory Panel, Assessing the Impact of Foreign Exchange Risk, Conference Board and Group of Thirty, 2000-2003.
Panel Member, Economia, Journal of the Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association, Brookings Press, 2000.
Expert Reviewer, Third Assessment Report of Working Group III on Mitigation of Climate Change, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 1999-2000.
Member, Academic Consultants panel, Federal Reserve Governors, Washington, D.C., 1993, 1999.
Presidential Economic Policy Advisory Board, White House, Washington, D.C., 1994.
Member, Panel on Foreign Trade Statistics, Committee on National Statistics, National Research Council, National Academy of Sciences, 1992-95.
Economic Policy panel member Centre for Economic Policy Research, London, 1992-93.
Faculty Executive Board member, Clausen Center for International Business and Policy, Haas School of Business, U.C. Berkeley, 1996-98.
Advisor, Central Bank of Colombia, Bogota, 1992.
Director, Center for International and Development Economics Research, U.C. Berkeley, 1991-96.
Political Economy of European Integration Study Group, Univ. of California, 1991-96.
Director, Colloquium for Research in International Policy Economics, Institute for International Studies, U.C. Berkeley, 1990-96.
Associate Member, Center for Pacific Basin Monetary and Economic Studies, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, 1990-96.
Japan Policy Study Group, Reischauer Center, SAIS, Johns Hopkins University, 1991-95.
Member, Nikkei Teleforum, Tokyo, 1988-89.
Associate Member, Foundation for Advanced Information and Research, Japan, 1986-96.
Associate Member, Institute of Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Ministry of Finance, Japan, 1984-96.
Core Group Member, Japan-U.S. Economic Policy Group, Washington, D.C., 1985-96.
Economists' Committee, Sierra Club, 1981-83.
Consultant, Asia and the Pacific, Ford Foundation, 1978.
Economic Consultant, Bank of Portugal, Lisbon, 1976.
REFEREEING AND EDITORIAL BOARDS Advisory Board, International Economic Journal Editorial Board, Comparative Economic Studies
Senior Advisor, Brookings Trade Forum
Board of Editors, North American Journal of Economics and Finance
Senior Advisor, Asian Economic Panel
Associate Editor, Journal of International Money and Finance
Associate Editor, Journal of the Japanese and International Economies
Associate Editor, Review of International Economics
Advisory Editor, International Journal of Finance and Economics
Editorial Board, Journal of Economic Integration
Editorial Board, Open Economies Review
Advisory Board Member, Internatl. Finance J., Social Science Electronic Publishing
Associate Editor, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 1982-1993.
American Economic Review, American J. Agricultural Econ., Amer. Pol. Sci. Rev., Canadian J. Economics, Econometrica, Econ. Development and Cultural Change, Economic J., Economic Record, Economica, Economic Letters, European Econ.R., International Economic Rev., J.Banking and Finance, J.Comparative Ec., J.Development Ec., J.Ec.Dynamics and Control, J.Ec.Literature, J.Econ.Theory, J.Empirical Finance, J.Environmental Econ. and Management, J.Finance, J. Health Ec., J.Macroeconomics, J.Money, Credit and Banking, J.Monetary Economics, J. Political Economy, Princeton International Finance Papers, Quarterly J. Economics, R. Economics and Statistics, Sloan Mngmt. R., J.International Econ., Southern Econ. J., World Bank Economic Rev., World Economy, National Science Foundation, and various publishers.
HONORS AND AWARDS The Clair Wilcox Lecture, Swarthmore College, October 24, 2016.
Abramson Scroll for outstanding article, Business Economics, 2012.
In the top 20, highest “impact factor” among research economists, IDEAS, 2011-.
ISI Highly Cited Researchers, 2005-
The 5th Annual Mundell-Fleming Lecture, International Monetary Fund, 2004.
Choice Award Recipient -- CHOICE Outstanding Academic Books for 2002, Association of College and Research Libraries, for American Economic Policy in the 1990s.
The Graham Lecture, Princeton University, 1999.
Who’s Who in Economics: A Biographical Dictionary of Major Economists 1700 to 1995, 3rd ed., James & Blaug, eds.; 4thed., Blaug & Vane, eds., 2003 (Edward Elgar Publ.)
Who’s Who; Who’s Who in the World.
Economists’ Hall of Fame Trading Cards, Prentiss Hall.
Special Prize, 10th Annual Masayoshi Ohira Memorial Prize, Foundation for Advanced Information and Research, 1994.
First Prize, AMEX Bank Review Awards, 1991.
Alfred P. Sloan Research Fellowship, 1986-1988.
National Science Foundation Fellowship, M.I.T., 1974-77.
Phi Beta Kappa, 1974.
OUTSIDE GRANTS Principal Investigator, Grant on “Fiscal Forecast Bias and Fiscal Rules,” Smith Richardson Foundation, Supplement, 2015-2016.
Principal Investigator, Grant on “Fiscal Forecast Bias and Fiscal Rules,” Smith Richardson Foundation, 2012-2014.
Co-investigator, Grant on Global Aspects of the Financial Crisis and Great Recession, Sloan Foundation, via NBER, 2010-2012.
Principal Investigator, Global Migration and Human Mobility Grant, MacArthur Foundation, 2009-2010.
Principal Investigator, Economic Policy in the 1990s, Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, 2001.
Principal Investigator, Japan-U.S. Friendship Comm. Grant, USG, Washington, 1992-96.
Co-Investigator, Ford Foundation Initiative in International Econ. and Dev., 1991-97.
Principal Investigator, Japan-U.S. Friendship Commission Grant, U.S. Govt., 1990-92.
Principal Investigator, National Science Foundation Grant No. SES-8218300, 1983-86.
Principal Investigator, National Science Foundation Grant No. SES-8007162, 1980-82.
BOOKS World Trade and Payments: An Introduction, with Richard Caves and Ronald Jones; 5th edition, 1990; 6th ed., 1993; 7th ed., 1996; 8th ed., 1999; 9th ed., 2002; Tenth edition, Addison Wesley Longman: Boston MA, 2007. (Portugese translation, 2001; French and Japanese translations, 2003; Polish translation, 2004; Chinese translation, Liangjing Publishing Studio, 2005.) International edition, 2006.
Regional Trading Blocs in the World Trading System, Institute for International Economics, Washington DC, 1997.
Financial Markets and Monetary Policy, M.I.T. Press: Cambridge, MA, 1995.
Does Foreign Exchange Intervention Work?, with Kathryn Dominguez, Institute for International Economics, Washington, D.C., 1993.
On Exchange Rates, M.I.T. Press: Cambridge, MA, 1993.
BOOKS EDITED NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2011, with Christopher Pissarides (University of Chicago Press, Chicago IL), 2012.
NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2008, with Christopher Pissarides (University of Chicago Press, Chicago IL), 2009.
NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2005, with Christopher Pissarides (M.I.T. Press, Cambridge Ma.), 2007.
NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2004, with Richard Clarida, Francesco Giavazzi and Kenneth West (M.I.T. Press, Cambridge Ma.), 2006.
Managing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, with Michael Dooley (University of Chicago Press, Chicago), 2003.
American Economic Policy in the 1990s, with Peter Orszag (MIT Press, Cambridge MA), 2002. Chinese edition (CITIC Publishing House of Beijing), 2004.
Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, with Sebastian Edwards (University of Chicago Press, Chicago), 2002.
The Regionalization of the World Economy (Univ. of Chicago Press, Chicago), 1997.
The Microstructure of Foreign Exchange Markets, with Giampaolo Galli and Alberto Giovannini (University of Chicago Press, Chicago), 1996.
The Internationalization of Equity Markets (University of Chicago Press, Chicago), 1994.
Regionalism and Rivalry: Japan and the United States in Pacific Asia, with Miles Kahler, (University of Chicago Press, Chicago), 1993.
International Policy Coordination in the 1990's (Sen Kyuhyaku Kyuzyunendaino Kokusai Seisaku Kyocho), with Akira Hattori, Dobunkan Press, Japan, 1992.
MONOGRAPHS “Environmental Effects of International Trade,”A Report for the Swedish Globalisation Council (Government of Sweden Stockholm), 2009. HKS RWP 09-006.
“Should Gold-Exporters Peg Their Currencies to Gold?” Research Study No. 29 (World Gold Council, London), 2002.
“No Single Currency Regime is Right for All Countries or at All Times,” Essays in International Finance No. 215 (Princeton University Press: Princeton) 1999. Translated into Chinese in Economic Herald, 5-6, Sept.-Nov. 2000 (CITIC, Beijing).
"Obstacles to International Macroeconomic Policy Coordination," Studies in International Finance, No. 64 (Princeton University Press: Princeton),1988.
"The Dollar as an Irrational Speculative Bubble: A Tale of Fundamentalists and Chartists," with Ken Froot, The Marcus Wallenberg Papers on International Finance, Vol. 1, No. 1, International Law Institute: Washington, D.C., 1986.
"Six Possible Meanings of `Overvaluation': The 1981-85 Dollar," Essays in International Finance No. 159 (Princeton University Press: Princeton), 1985. Reprinted in The International Monetary System: Highlights from Fifty Years of Princeton's Essays in International Finance, edited by Peter Kenen (Westview Press: Boulder, CO), 1993.
"The Yen/Dollar Agreement: Liberalizing Japanese Capital Markets," Policy Analyses In International Economics No.9 (MIT Press for Institute for International Economics: Washington, D.C.), 1984. Reprinted (in Japanese) by Nomura Research, Tokyo, 1985.
ARTICLES IN U.S. JOURNALS "Effects of Speculation and Interest Rates in a ‘Carry Trade’ Model of Commodity Prices," Journal of International Money and Finance,vol.42, April 2014,pp. 88-112. HKS RWP 13-022, June 2013. NBER WP 19463.
“On Graduation from Fiscal Procyclicality,” with Carlos Végh and Guillermo Vuletin, Journal of Development Economics, 100, no.1, Jan. 2013, pp.32-47. HKS RWP 12-011. NBER WP 17619.
“Are Leading Indicators of Financial Crises Useful for Assessing Country Vulnerability? Evidence from the 2008-09 Global Crisis,” with George Saravelos, Journal of International Economics 87, no.2, July 2012, pp. 216-231. HKS RWP 11-024. NBER WP 16047.
“A Comparison of Product Price Targeting and Other Monetary Anchor Options, for Commodity-Exporters in Latin America," Economia, Journal of LACEA, vol.12, no.1 (Brookings Institution), 2011, 1-57. NBER WP 16362. CID WP 225, Nov. 2011.
“Are Bilateral Remittances Countercyclical?” Open Economies Review, vol.22, no.1, Feb. 2011, 1-16. HKS RWP 10-037. NBER WP 15419.
“Estimation of De Facto Flexibility Parameter and Basket Weights in Evolving Exchange Rate Regimes,” with Daniel Xie, American Economic Review 100, May 2010. NBER WP 15620.
“The Forward Market in Emerging Currencies: Less Biased than in Major Currencies” with Jumana Poonawala, Journal of International Money and Finance, 29, no.3, April 2010, 585-598. RWP09-023. NBER WP 12496.
"Estimation of De Facto Exchange Rate Regimes: Synthesis of The Techniques for Inferring Flexibility and Basket Weights," IMF Staff Papers, vol. 55, 2008. With complete appendices: NBER WP 14016 and HKS RWP08-026.
“Why the Euro Will Rival the Dollar,” with Menzie Chinn, International Finance 11, no. 1, 2008, 49-73. Serbian translation, Panoeconomicus, 55, no.3, 255-78, 2008. Revised version of “The Euro May Over the Next 15 Years Surpass the Dollar as Leading International Currency,” NBER WP No. 13909. To be reprinted also in The US Dollar: The Dominance, the Decline, and the Future (ICFAI, Hyderabad), 2008.
“Does Openness to Trade Make Countries More Vulnerable to Sudden Stops, or Less?
Using Gravity to Establish Causality,” with Eduardo Cavallo, Journal of International Money and Finance, 27, no. 8, December 2008, 1430-1452. NBER WP No. 10957.
“Contractionary Currency Crashes in Developing Countries,” IMF Staff Papers, 52, no. 2, 2005, 149-192. KSG RWP05-017and NBER WP 11510. “Is Trade Good or Bad for the Environment? Sorting Out the Causality,” with Andrew Rose, Review of Economics and Statistics, 87, no. 1, Feb. 2005, 85-91. NBER WP No. 9201. Reprinted in Recent Papers in Trade and the Environment, edited by Brian Copeland (Edward Elgar Publishers: UK), 2014.
“Global Transmission of Interest Rates: Monetary Independence and the Currency Regime,” with Sergio Schmukler and Luis Servén, Journal of International Money and Finance, 23, no. 5, September 2004, 701-734. NBER WP 8828.
“An Estimate of the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade and Income,” with Andrew Rose, Quarterly Journal of Economics, CXVII, 2, May 2002, 437-466. NBER WP 7857. Reprinted in Recent Developments in Exchange Rate Economics, edited by Mark P. Taylor and Meher Manzur (Oxford University Press), 2013.
"Verifying Exchange Rate Regimes," with Eduardo Fajnzylber, Sergio Schmukler, and Luis Servén, Journal of Development Economics, vol. 66, no. 2, Dec. 2001: 351-386.
"Does Trade Cause Growth?" with David Romer, American Economic Review 89, no. 3, June 1999, 379-399. NBER WP 5476. Reprinted in Trade and Growth, New World Order Series, vol. 20, edited by H.Singer, N.Hatti and R.Tandon (BR Publishing Corp. Ltd., Delhi, 2002). Reprinted in The Globalization of the World Economy, D.Greenaway, H.Görg, and R.Kneller, eds. (Edward Elgar Publ., Cheltenham UK, 2008). Reprinted in Global Economic Institutions, edited by W.Molle (Taylor and Francis, Ltd., 2008). Reprinted in The Economics of Free Trade, edited by Gary Hufbauer and Kati Suominen (Edward Elgar, UK, 2012). To be reprinted in in Globalisation and Democracy, edited by Jonathan Michie; The International Library of Critical Writings in Economics (Edward Elgar: UK).
"Open Regionalism in a World of Continental Trade Blocs," with Shang-Jin Wei, IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 45, No. 3, September 1998, 440-453. Reprinted in Regional Trading Arrangements, New World Order Series, vol. 22, H.Singer, N.Hatti and R.Tandon, eds. (BR Publishing Corp., Ltd., Delhi, B.R., 2004). NBER WP 5272.
"Recent Exchange Rate Experience and Proposals for Reform," American Economic Review 86, no.2, May 1996, 153-158. Reprinted in Macroeconomic Policy in Open Economies: A Reader, edited by Mehmet Ugur (Routledge), 2001.
"Country Fund Discounts and the Mexican Crisis of 1994: Did Mexican Residents Turn Pessimistic Before International Investors?" with Sergio Schmukler, Open Economies Review 7, Fall 1996, 511-534. Reprinted in Currency Crashes: Causes, Consequences and Policy Responses, edited by George Tavlas (Kluwer), 1997, 81-104. CIDER WP C96-067, UCB.
"Currency Crashes in Emerging Markets," with Andrew Rose, Journal of International Economics 41, no. 3/4, 351-366, 1996. IFDP No. 534, Federal Reserve Board.
"Regional Trading Arrangements: Natural or Super-Natural?" with E. Stein and S.J. Wei, American Economic Review 86, no.2, May 1996, 52-56. Reprinted in Regional Trading Arrangements, New World Order Series, vol. 22, edited by H.Singer, N. Hatti and R. Tandon, BRPC (India) Ltd..
"A Panel Project on Purchasing Power Parity: Mean-Reversion Within and Between Countries," with Andrew Rose, Journal of International Economics 40, no.1-2, February 1996, 209-224. Reprinted in Purchasing Power Parity, Meher Manzur, ed., The International Library of Critical Writings in Economics (Edward Elgar Publ., 2008).
"Can Regional Blocs Be Stepping Stones to Global Free Trade?" with Shang-Jin Wei, International Review of Economics and Finance, 5 no. 4, November 1995, 339-347.
"Who Drives Real Interest Rates in the Pacific Rim: The United States or Japan?" with Menzie Chinn, Journal of International Money and Finance 14, no. 6, December 1995, 801-821.
"Economic Regionalism: Evidence from Two 20th Century Episodes," with Barry Eichengreen, North American Journal of Economics and Finance 6, no.2, Fall 1995, 89-106. Reprinted in Hedging Bets on Growth in a Globalizing Industrial Order: Lessons for the Asian NIEs, edited by Lee-Jay Cho and Yoon Hyung Kim (Korea Development Institute Press, 1998), 89-119.
"Trading Blocs and the Americas: The Natural, the Unnatural, and the Super-Natural," with Ernesto Stein and ShangJin Wei, Journal of Development Economics 47, no. 1, June 1995, 61-95. Full version, CIDER WP C94-034.
"The Stabilizing Properties of a Nominal GNP Rule," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 27, no. 2, May 1995, 318-334.
"The Constrained Asset Share Estimation (CASE) Method: Testing Mean-Variance Efficiency of the U.S. Stock Market," with C. Engel, K. Froot, and A. Rodrigues, Journal of Empirical Finance 2, 1995, 3-18.
"An Indicator of Future Inflation Extracted from the Steepness of the Interest Rate Yield Curve Along its Entire Length," with Cara Lown, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 109, no.2, May 1994, 517-530.
"A 'Greater China' Trade Bloc?" with Shang-Jin Wei, China Economic Review 5, no.2, Fall 1994, 179-190.
"Patterns in Exchange Rate Forecasts for 25 Currencies," with Menzie Chinn, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 26, no. 24, November 1994, 759-770. Revised version of "Are Exchange Rate Expectations Biased? Tests for a Cross-Section of 25 Currencies," NBER WP 807. Reprinted in New Developments in Exchange Rate Economics, edited by L. Sarno and M. Taylor (Edward Elgar Publishing, 2002).
"Chartists, Fundamentalists, and Trading in the Foreign Exchange Market," with Ken Froot, American Economic Review 80, no.2, May 1990, 181-85. Reprinted in Speculation and Financial Markets, edited by Mark Taylor and Liam Gallagher, 2002; and in New Developments in Exchange Rate Economics, edited by Luico Sarno and Mark Taylor, International Library of Critical Writings in Economics (Edward Elgar Publishers, UK, 2002).
"Does Foreign Exchange Intervention Matter? The Portfolio Effect," with Kathryn Dominguez, American Economic Review 83, no. 5, December 1993, 1356-69. Reprinted in Foreign Exchange Intervention: Objectives and Effectiveness, edited by Sylvester Eijffinger (Edward Elgar Publishing, 1999). Abridged version of CIDER WP 92-001.
"Exchange Rate Expectations and the Risk Premium: Tests for a Cross-Section of 17 Currencies," with Menzie Chinn, Review of International Economics 1, no.2, June 1993, 136-144.
"A Note on Internationally Coordinated Policy Packages Intended to be Robust Under Model Uncertainty," with S.Erwin and K.Rockett, American Economic Review, 82, no.4, September 1992, 1052-56.
"Measuring International Capital Mobility: A Review," American Economic Review 82, no.2, May 1992, 197-202. Reprinted in International Financial Integration, edited by Sylvester Eijffinger and Jan Lemmen (Edward Elgar Publishing, Cheltenham, 2003).
"The Japanese Cost of Finance: A Survey," Financial Management 20, no.1, Spring 1991, 95-127.
"Chartists, Fundamentalists, and Trading in the Foreign Exchange Market," with Ken Froot, American Economic Review 80, no.2, May 1990, 181-85. Reprinted in Speculation and Financial Markets, M. Taylor and L. Gallagher, eds., 2002; and in New Developments in Exchange Rate Economics, L. Sarno and M. Taylor, eds., International Library of Critical Writings in Economics (Edward Elgar Publishers, UK), 2002.
"Forward Discount Bias: Is it an Exchange Risk Premium?" with Ken Froot, Quarterly Journal of Economics 104, no.1, Feb. 1989, 139-161. Reprinted in Advances in Behavioral Finance, R.Thaler, ed. (Russell Sage Foundation, NY, 1993), 359-381. Also in Speculation and Financial Markets, Mark Taylor and Liam Gallagher, eds., International Library of Critical Writings in Economics (Edward Elgar Publ., UK, 2002).
"Flexible Exchange Rates: Experience versus Theory," Journal of Portfolio Management 15, no.2, Winter 1989, 45-54.
"International Macroeconomic Policy Coordination When Policy-Makers Do Not Agree On the Model," with Katharine Rockett, American Economic Review 78, no. 3, June 1988, 318-340. Also translated into Spanish in Instituto de Estudios Fiscales (Hacienda Publica Espanola: Madrid).
"Recent Estimates of Time-Variation in the Conditional Variance and in the Exchange Risk Premium," Journal of International Money and Finance, 7, March 1988, 115-125.
"Using Survey Data to Test Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations," with Ken Froot, American Economic Review 77, no. 1, March 1987, 133-153. Reprinted in Exchange Rate Economics, vol. II, R. MacDonald and M. Taylor, eds., International Library of Critical Writings in Econ. (Edward Elgar Publ., U.K., 1992).
"International Capital Mobility in Developing Countries vs. Industrialized Countries: What Do Saving-Investment Correlations Tell Us?" with Michael Dooley and Don Mathieson, IMF Staff Papers, 34, no. 3, September 1987, 503-530. Reprinted in International Financial Integration, S.Eijffinger and Jan Lemmen, eds., International Library of Critical Writings in Economics (Edward Elgar Publ., UK, 2003).
"Are Exchange Rates Excessively Variable?" with Richard Meese, NBER Macro-economics Annual 1987, edited by Stanley Fischer (MIT Press, Cambridge).
"Regression vs. Volatility Tests of the Efficiency of Foreign Exchange Markets," with James Stock, Journal of International Money and Finance 6, no. 1, March 1987, 49-56.
"Expectations and Commodity Price Dynamics: The Overshooting Model," American Journal of Agricultural Economics 68, no. 2, May 1986, 344-348.
"The Implications of Mean-Variance Optimization for Four Questions in International Macroeconomics," Journal of International Money and Finance, 5, March 1986, S53-75.
"The Dazzling Dollar," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 1, 1985, 199-217.
"Commodity Prices, Money Surprises, and Fed Credibility" with Gikas Hardouvelis, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 17, no. 4, November 1985, Part I, 427-438.
"Portfolio Crowding Out Empirically Estimated," Quarterly Journal of Economics 100, 1985, 1041-1065.
"Portfolio Shares as `Beta-Breakers': A Test of CAPM," Journal of Portfolio Management 11, no. 4, Summer 1985, 18-23.
"Commodity Prices and Money: Lessons from International Finance," American Journal of Agricultural Economics 66, no. 5, December 1984, 560-566.
"Do Asset Demand Functions Optimize Over the Mean and Variance of Real Returns? A Six Currency Test," with Charles Engel, Journal of International Economics 17, December 1984, 309-323.
"The Theory of Trade in Middle Products: Extension," American Economic Review, June 1984.
"Why Interest Rates React to Money Announcements: An Explanation from the Foreign Exchange Market," with Charles Engel, Journal of Monetary Economics 10, no. 1, January 1984.
"The Effect of Excessively-Elastic Expectations on Exchange Rate Volatility in the Dornbusch Overshooting Model," Journal of International Money and Finance 2, no. 1, 1983.
"In Search of the Exchange Risk Premium: A Six-Currency Test Assuming Mean-Variance Optimization" Journal of International Money and Finance 1, December 1982, 255-274. Reprinted in Exchange Rate Economics, Vol.II, edited by R.MacDonald and M.Taylor, International Library of Critical Writings in Economics (Edward Elgar Publishing, Hants, U.K., 1992).
"A Test of Perfect Substitutability in the Foreign Exchange Market," Southern Economic Journal 46, no. 4, April 1980.
"The Mystery of the Multiplying Marks: A Modification of the Monetary Model:" Review of Economics and Statistics, LXIV, 3, August 1982.
"The 1807-1809 Embargo Against Great Britain," Journal of Economic History, XLII, no. 2, June 1982.
"A Technique for Extracting a Measure of Expected Inflation from the Interest Rate Term Structure," Review of Economics and Statistics 64, no. 1, February 1982, 135-142.
"On The Mark: Reply," American Economic Review 71, no. 5, December 1981.
"Tests of Rational Expectations in the Forward Exchange Market," Southern Economic Journal 46, no. 4, April 1980.
"On The Mark: A Theory of Floating Exchange Rates Based on Real Interest Differentials," American Economic Review 69, no. 4, September 1979, 601-622. Translated to Italian in Flexible Exchange Rates: Theory and Experience, F. Giavazzi and R. Cohen, editors (Etas Libri: Sonzongo, 1982). Reprinted also in Exchange Rate Economics, Vol.I, R.MacDonald and M.Taylor, eds., International Library of Critical Writings in Economics (Edward Elgar Publ., Cheltenham, U.K., 1992).
"The Diversifiability of Exchange Risk," Journal of International Economics 9, August 1979, 379-393.
"The Bluejeans Effect," The American Economist, 19:60, Spring 1976. Reprinted in Readings for Principles of Economics, J. Crawford, editor (W.B. Saunders Co.: Philadelphia).
ARTICLES IN OVERSEAS JOURNALS “Nominal GDP Targeting for Developing Countries,” with Pranjul Bhandari, Forthcoming, Research in Economics vol.71, issue 3 (Elsevier), September 2017. NBER WP 20898. Revised from “The Best of Rules and Discretion: A Case for Nominal GDP Targeting in India,” CID WP No. 284, HKS.
"Nominal GDP Targeting for Middle-Income Countries," Central Bank Review, 2014, vol.14, no.3, Sept. (Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey), pp.1-14. HKS RWP14-033.
“Sustainable Cooperation in Global Climate Policy: Specific Formulas and Emission Targets,” with Valentina Bosetti, Climate Change Economics, 2014, vol.5, no.3, August. HKS RWP 12-012. Revised from “Sustainable Cooperation in Global Climate Policy: Specific Formulas and Emission Targets to Build on Copenhagen and Cancun,” background paper for Human Development Report, UNDP. Harvard Project on Climate Agreements DP no. 46; and Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei WP 66.
“Over-optimistic Official Forecasts in the Eurozone and Fiscal Rules,” with Jesse Schreger, Review of World Economy, 2013, vol.149, no. 2, pp.247-272. NBER WP no. 18283.
“Internationalization of the RMB and Historical Precedents,” Journal of Economic Integration, 2012, vol. 27, no. 3, pp.329-365. “Slow Pass-through Around the World: A New Import for Developing Countries?”
with David Parsley and Shang-Jin Wei, 2012, Open Economies Review, vol.23, no. 2(Springer), April, pp.213-251. KSG RWP05-015; NBER WP no. 11199.
“Over-optimism in Forecasts by Official Budget Agencies and Its Implications,” 2011, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, vol. 27, no. 4, pp.536-562. NBER WP 17239.
“New Estimation of China’s Exchange Rate Regime,” Pacific Economic Review, vol.14, no.3, Aug. 2009 (Wiley InterScience, Blackwell Publ.), pp. 346-360. NBER WP 14700.
"Fiscal and Monetary Policy in a Commodity Based Economy," with B. Smit and F.Sturzenegger, Economics of Transition16, no. 4, 2008, pp.679-713(Blackwell). “Macroeconomic Challenges after a Decade of Success,” with Ben Smit and Federico Sturzenegger, Economics of Transition 16, no. 4, 2008, 639-677(Blackwell).
“On the Rand: Determinants of the South African Exchange Rate,” South African Journal of Economics, vol.75, no.3, September 2007, 425-441. NBER WP No.13050.
“Assessing China’s Exchange Rate Regime,”Economic Policy no. 51, July 2007, pp.575-614. CEPR DP No. 6264. NBER WP , May 2007.
On the Yuan: The Choice Between Adjustment Under a Fixed Exchange Rate and Adjustment under a Flexible Rate,” in Understanding the Chinese Economy, edited by Gerhard Illing, CESifo Economic Studies, vol. 52, no. 2 (Oxford University Press), 2006, 246-275. Revised version of “On the Renminbi: The Choice Between Adjustment Under a Fixed Exchange Rate and Adjustment under a Flexible Rate,” High-Level Seminar on Foreign Exchange System; Dalian, May 2004. KSG RWP04-037. NBER WP No. 11274.
“A Proposal to Anchor Monetary Policy by the Price of the Export Commodity,” with Ayako Saiki, Journal of Economic Integration, September 2002, 17, no.3, pp. 417-448.
"Country Funds and Asymmetric Information," with Sergio Schmukler, International Journal of Finance and Economics 5: 177-195, July 2000. Policy Research WP 1886, World Bank.
"The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criterion," with Andrew Rose, The Economic Journal, vol. 108, no. 449, July 1998, 1009-1025. NBER WP No. 5700. Reprinted in Swedish Economic Policy Review 4, 1997, 487-512. Reprinted also in The Political Economy of Monetary Union, P.DeGrauwe, ed., International Library of Critical Writings in Economics, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, UK, and Northampton, MA, 2001. And in Political Economy of International Monetary Interdependence, New World Order Series, vol. 25, H.Singer, N.Hatti and R.Tandon, eds., BR Publ.Corp.,Delhi, B.R., 2006.
"Is EMU More Justifiable Ex Post than Ex Ante?" with Andrew Rose, European Economic Review, 1997. Condensed from "Economic Structure and the Decision to Adopt a Common Currency,” CIDER WP No.C96-073, UCB, and IIES Seminar Paper No. 611, Stockholm.
"Sterilization of Money Inflows: Difficult (Calvo) or Easy (Reisen)?" English version in Estudios de Economia, vol.24, no. 2, December 1997 (Universidad de Chile: Santiago), 263-285. Spanish version in Afluencia de Capitales y Establizacion en America Latina, edited by Roberto Steiner, Fedesarrollo, Bogota, 1994: 241-267. Latinamerican Macroeconomic Network, Cartagena, 1993; IMF WP No. 94/159.
"Liberalized Portfolio Capital Inflows in Emerging Markets: Sterilization, Expectations, and the Incompleteness of Interest Rate Convergence," with Chudozie Okongwu, International Journal of Finance and Economics 1, no. 1, Jan. 1996, 1-23.
"Financial Barriers in the Pacific Basin: 1982-1992," with Menzie Chinn, Journal of Economic Integration 9, no. 1, March 1994, 62-80. UC Berkeley, 1992.
"A Two-Country Analysis of International Targeting of Nominal GNP," with Norbert Funke, Rivista di Politica Economica 83, no.3, April 1993, edited by M. Di Matteo (Rome, in English and Italian), 69-106. Reprinted in volume edited by B.Baldassari, M. Di Mateo and R. Mundell (St.Martin's Press, NY), 1994.
"The Recent Liberalization of Korea's Foreign Exchange Markets, and Tests of U.S. versus Japanese Influence," Seoul Journal of Economics, vol.5, no.1 (Spring 1992), 1-29.
"The European Monetary System: Credible at Last?" with Steve Phillips, Oxford Economic Papers, vol. 44 (1992), 791-816.
"International Nominal Targeting (INT): A Proposal for Monetary Policy Coordination in the 1990s," The World Economy, 13, no. 2 (June 1990), United Kingdom, 263-273.
"Obstacles to International Macroeconomic Policy Coordination," Journal of Public Policy 8, no.3, 1989 (Cambridge University Press, UK).
"Factors Determining the Flow of Capital from Japan to the United States," in Global and Domestic Policy Implications of Correcting External Imbalances, edited by M. Yoshitomi (Economic Planning Agency, Tokyo), 1988. Condensed version in Japanese in Kinyu Journal, July 1988.
"Political vs. Currency Premia in International Real Interest Differentials: A Study of Forward Rates for 24 Countries," with Alan MacArthur, European Economic Review 32, June 1988, 1083-1121. Reprinted in Exchange Rate Economics, Vol.II, R.MacDonald and M.Taylor, eds., International Library of Critical Writings in Economics, Edward Elgar Publ., 1992. Reprinted also in International Financial Integration, edited by S.Eijffinger and J.Lemmen (Edward Elgar Publishing), 2003.
"Short-term and Long-term Expectations of the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate: Evidence from Survey Data," with Ken Froot, Journal of the Japanese and International Economies 1, 1987, 249-274.
"The Desirability of Currency Appreciation Given a Contractionary Monetary Policy and Concave Supply Relationships," Journal of International Economic Integration 3, 1, Spring 1988, 32-52. NBER WP No. 1110.
"Understanding the U.S. Dollar in the Eighties: The Expectations of Chartists and Fundamentalists," with Ken Froot, Economic Record, December 1986, 24-38. Reprinted in Exchange Rate Economics, vol.I, R.MacDonald and M.Taylor, eds., International Library of Critical Writings in Economics, Edward Elgar Publ., U.K., 1992.
"On the Franc," Annales de l'INSEE, 47-48, December 1982 (in French and English). Reprinted in The French Economy: Theory and Policy, edited by Jacques Melitz and Charles Wyplosz (Westview Press: Boulder, Colorado), 1985.
"Estimation of Portfolio-Balance Functions that are Mean-Variance Optimizing: The Mark and the Dollar," European Economic Review 23, 1983, 315-327.
"A Model of the Portuguese Economy," with A. Abel, M. Beleza, R. Hill, and P. Krugman, Economia, no. 1, January 1977 (Lisbon).
ARTICLES FOR BOOKS “The Currency-Plus-Commodity Basket:A Proposal for Exchange Rates in Oil-Exporting Countries to Accommodate Trade Shocks Automatically,” forthcoming, Macroeconomic Institutions & Management in Resource-Rich Arab Economies (Oxford U. Press). CID WP no.333, March 2017. “International Coordination," in Policy Challenges in a Diverging GlobalEconomy,edited by Reuven Glick and Mark Spiegel(Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco), 2016, pp. 149-185. HKS RWP No. 16-002; NBER WP No. 21878, Jan. 2016. Spanish translation, CEMLA Boletin, LXII, no.1, Jan. - Mar. 2016. “Mauritius: African Success Story,” 2016, African Successes, vol. 4, Sustainable Growth, edited by Sebastian Edwards, Simon Johnson, and David Weil (University of Chicago Press), 295-342. CID WP 234, NBER WP 16569 and HKS RWP10-036.
“Become an International Economist, See the World,” in Eminent Economists II, Lall Ramrattan & Michael Szenberg, eds. (Cambridge University Press), 2014.
“A Solution to Fiscal Procyclicality: The Structural Budget Institutions Pioneered by Chile,” in Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Performance, Luis Felipe Céspedes and Jordi Galí, eds., Series on Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies, vol.17 (Central Bank of Chile: Santiago), 2013, pp. 323-391. Spanish translation, Economía Chilena, 14, no.2, Agosto 2011, pp. 39-78. NBER WP No. 16945. Condensed from “A Solution to Overoptimistic Forecasts and Fiscal Procyclicality: The Structural Budget Institutions Pioneered by Chile,” XIVth Annual Conference of the Central Bank of Chile, 2010. HKS RWP11-012.
“The Natural Resource Curse: A Survey of Diagnoses and Some Prescriptions,” in Commodity Price Volatility and Inclusive Growth in Low-Income Countries, edited by Rabah Arezki, Catherine Pattillo, Marc Quintyn and Min Zhu (International Monetary Fund), 2012. CID WP 233; HKS RWP 12-014.