Earth is actually getting colder - disproves anthropogenic warming
Klimenko 11 (RAS Klimenko, Moscow Power Engineering Institute, 2011, "Why is Global Warming Slowing Down?," Doklady Earth Sciences, Vol. 440(2))
The first decade of the present century has endedwith a remarkable climatic event: for the first time over the past 65 years, the fiveyear average global temper ature over 2006–2010 turned out to be lower than the value for the previous fiveyear interval (2001–2005).In addition, the absolute maximum temperature,which was attained as long ago as in 1998, has not been surpassed for thirteen years. Both these facts seemingly support the arguments of the opponents of globalwarming theory, at least those who regard the anthropogenic origin of warming questionable or even farfetched. Indeed, the anthropogenic emission of car bon dioxide, which is the major greenhouse atmospheric component, has risen by 60% from 5.2 giga tons to 8.5 gigatons of carbon, and its concentration has increased from 339 to 390 ppmv (parts per millionby volume). How then do we explain the apparent slowdown in the rate of global warming?Evidently, the observed global rise in temperature (Fig. 1) is a response of the climatic system to thecombined action of both anthropogenic and natural impacts. Some of the latter are precisely the factorsresponsible for the current climatic paradox. Further,we will attempt to identify these factors and, based ontheir analysis, forecast the global climatic trends forthe next decades.Figure 2 presents the wavelet spectra yielded bycontinuously analyzing the time series of global temperature over 1850–2011 . Here, we analyze onlyone of three existing global temperature datasetswhich are continuously updated, namely theHadCRUT3 temperature series provided by the University of East Anglia (accessible at http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/), because this is, asof now, the only dataset covering more than a 150yearinterval, which is crucial for our study. We note that itonly recently became possible to analyze such longtime series and, thus, identification of multidecaderhythms became a solvable task. The temperature datawere preliminarily rid of the longterm anthropogenictrend associated with the accumulation of greenhousegases and aerosols in the atmosphere; this trend wascalculated from the energybalance climate modeldeveloped at the Moscow Power Engineering Institute(MPEI) . The resulting temperature series, free of anthropogenic trends, will contain important infor mation on the influence of natural factors.Figure 2 shows that, throughout the entire interval of instrumental observations since the mid nineteenth century, the data contain rather stable 70year and 20year cyclic components. A less significant 9yearcycle was present in most observations (during 1870–1900 and 1940–2000), and a 6year cycle persistedover a considerable part of the entire time span.Closely consistent results were also obtained whenanalyzing the temperature series by the maximumentropy method (MEM) (Fig. 3). As the order of theauroregression (AR) method is known to significantlyaffect the result, in our case this parameter was chosento be onethird the length of the studied data series:according to the long experience in application ofMEM in climate research, this value is suitable forproviding useful information. All the harmonic components identified above are statistically significantwith a confidence level of 90%.Supposedly, the source of the dominant 70yearcycle is the North Atlantic, where this harmonic isreliably identified not only in the ocean [3–5] but alsoon the continental margins: in Greenland ,England , Finland , at the Novaya ZemlyaArchipelago, and on the Yamal Peninsula . Moreover, this periodical component is not only recognizedin the instrumental data but it is also revealed in thetime series of paleotemperature and pressure whichdate back to over hundreds and even thousands ofyears ago. We believe that this rhythm is associated with the quasiperiodical changes in the atmospheric and oceanic circulation known as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and with the related pulsations in the advection of warm waters to the basins of the Nor wegian and Barents seas. Indeed, the time series of theNAO index contain an approximately 60to 70yearcomponent  and show a strong positive correlationwith the time series of temperature in the Northernhemisphere .