Detlof von winterfeldt



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DETLOF VON WINTERFELDT

University of Southern California

3710 McClintock Ave., RTH 316A

Los Angeles, CA 90089-2902

winterfe@usc.edu

(213) 740 0898


December, 2016

SUMMARY
Detlof von Winterfeldt is the inaugural Tiberti Chair of Ethics and Decision Making and a Professor of Systems Engineering at the Daniel J. Epstein Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering in the Viterbi School of Engineering of the University of Southern California. He holds a joint appointment as Professor of Public Policy at the Price School of Public Policy at USC. In 2004 he co-founded the National Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events (CREATE), the first university-based center of excellence funded by the US Department of Homeland Security. He served as CREATE’s director from 2004 to 2008 and he was reappointed to this position in 2015. In the interim, he was on leave of absence from USC as Director of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (2009-2012) and as Centennial Professor of the London School of Economics and Political Science (2008-2012). Throughout his academic career he has been active in teaching, research, university administration, and consulting. He has taught courses in statistics, decision analysis, risk analysis, systems analysis, research design, and behavioral decision research. His research interests are in the foundation and practice of decision and risk analysis applied to the areas of technology development, environmental risks, natural hazards and terrorism. He is the co-author of two books, three edited volumes, and author or co-author of over 120 refereed articles and chapter. He has served on many committees and panels of the U.S. National Academies and the U.S. National Science Foundation, including an appointment to the National Academies’ Board on Mathematical Sciences and their Applications. He is an elected Fellow of the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS) and of the Society for Risk Analysis. In 2000 he received the Ramsey Medal for distinguished contributions to decision analysis from the Decision Analysis Society of INFORMS. In 2009 he received the Gold Medal from the International Society for Multicriteria Decision Making for advancing the field. In 2011 The Council of IIASA elected him as Honorary IIASA Scholar and in 2012 he received the distinguished achievement award by the Society for Risk Analysis.

EDUCATION
1976 Ph.D. University of Michigan, Ann Arbor - Mathematical Psychology

1971 M.S. University of Hamburg, Germany - Psychology

1969 B.S. University of Hamburg, Germany - Psychology
PROFESSIONAL APPOINTMENTS
2016- Inaugural Tiberti Chair for Ethics and Decision Making, Viterbi School of Engineering, University of Southern California

2016- Visiting Professor (honorary), University of Loughborough, Loughborough, United Kingdom

2015- Director, National Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events (CREATE) at USC

2015- Faculty Fellow, Schwarzenegger Institute for State and Global Policy, USC

2006- Professor of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Daniel J. Epstein Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Viterbi School of Engineering, USC


  1. Professor of Public Policy, Price School of Public Policy (formerly School of Policy, Planning, and Development, SPPD, USC)

2009-2012 Director of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria (on leave from USC)

2008-2012 Centennial Professor, London School of Economics and Political Science, Department of Management, Management Science Group, London, UK

2004-2008 Director, National Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events (CREATE), USC (co-founder and co-director in the first year)

2003-2005 Deputy Dean, SPPD, USC

2001-2003 Associate Dean for Faculty Affairs and Research, SPPD, USC

1998-2005 Director, Institute of Civic Enterprise, SPPD, USC

1997-1998 Professor of Planning, SPPD, USC

1989-1990 Visiting Professor, Institute for Mathematical Behavioral Sciences, University of California at Irvine

1987-1988 Chairman, Department of Systems Science, Institute for Safety and Systems Management (ISSM), USC

1987-1997 Professor of Systems Science, Department of Systems Science, ISSM, USC

1986-1988 Chairman, Research Center, ISSM, USC

1982-1987 Associate Professor, Department of Systems Science, ISSM, USC

1978-1986 Research Associate, Social Science Research Institute, USC

1975-1978 Research Scholar, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria

1973-1975 Research Assistant, Social Science Research Institute, University of Southern California

1972-1973 Research Assistant, Highway Safety Research Institute, University of Michigan

1970-1971 Research Assistant, Engineering Psychology Laboratory, Human Performance Center, University of Michigan
SELECTED AWARDS
2015 Society for Risk Analysis, Best Paper Award in the journal Risk Analysis in 2015.

2013 Decision Analysis Society of INFORMS, Best Publication Award 2013 (chapter in the award winning book “Portfolio Decision Analysis”)

2012 Distinguished Achievement Award, Society for Risk Analysis

2011 Honorary Research Scholar, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria (IIASA)

2010 Society for Risk Analysis, best article award for issue-linked papers in the journal Risk Analysis in 2010

2009 Gold Medal, International Society for Multi-Criteria Decision Making

2008 Decision Analysis Society of INFORMS, Practice Award (Finalist)

2007 Society for Risk Analysis, best article award in Decision Sciences in the journal Risk Analysis in 2007 (with Heather Rosoff)

2004 Fellow, Institute for Operations Research and Management Science

2004 Franklin Award for Outstanding Contributions to the School of Policy, Planning, and Development, USC

2003 Decision Analysis Society of INFORMS, Practice Award (Finalist)

2000 Frank P. Ramsey Medal for Distinguished Contributions to the Field of Decision Analysis, Decision Analysis Society of INFORMS

2000 Distinguished Service Award, Society for Risk Analysis

1999 Franklin Award for Outstanding Faculty, SPPD, USC

1997 Edelman Laureate, INFORMS (Finalist of Edelman Competition)

1994 Fellow, Society for Risk Analysis

1987 USC Faculty Recognition Award, Phi Kappa Phi, Honorable Mention (for the book Decision Analysis and Behavioral Research)

1970 Germany-US Exchange Scholarship and Fulbright Travel Scholarship (University of Hamburg - University of Michigan)


EDITORIAL BOARDS
2012- Member, Editorial Board, European Journal on Decision Processes

2005- Associate Editor, Decision Analysis

2003-2005 Department Editor for Decision Analysis, Management Science

1998-2004 Member, Editorial Board, Risk Decision and Policy

1997-2000 Area Editor, Social Science and Decision Making, Risk Analysis

1991-2000 Member, Editorial Board, Journal of Behavioral Decision Making

1988-2000 Member, Editorial Board, Risk Abstracts

1988-2009 Member, Editorial Board, Risk Analysis

1989-1994 Associate Editor, Management Science


    1. Associate Editor, Operations Research


MEMBERSHIPS AND POSITIONS IN PROFESSIONAL SOCIETIES
1998-2000 Chairman, Decision Analysis Society

1996-2001 Member, Society for Medical Decision Making

1996-1998 Chairman-Elect, Decision Analysis Society

1995-1996 Council Member, Decision Analysis Society



  1. Member, INFORMS

1985-2005 Member, Society for Judgment and Decision Making

1983- Member, Society for Risk Analysis

1980-1995 Member, Operations Research Society of America

1980-1995 Member, Institute for the Management Sciences


SELECTED SCIENTIFIC PANELS AND REVIEW BOARDS
2016-present Chair, Committee on Performance Based Safety Regulations, National Academies, Washington, DC

2015-present Member, Committee on the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, National Academies, Washington, DC

2012-2013 Member, Committee on Developing a Decision-Support Tool for Prioritizing New Vaccines, Institute of Medicine, National Academies, Washington, DC

2012-2013 Member, Committee on Evaluating the Effectiveness of the Global Nuclear Detection Architecture, National Research Council, Washington, DC

2010-2012 Member, International Advisory Committee, National Research Foundation, Republic of Korea

2009-2012 Member, Research Advisory Committee, Institute for Global Environmental Strategies, Tokyo, Japan

2008-2012 Member, Global Agenda Council on Catastrophic Risk, World Economic Forum, Davos, Switzerland.

2008-2012 Member, World Economic Forum, Global Agenda Council on Catastrophic Risks, Davos, Switzerland and Dubai, United Arabic Emirates.

2008-2009 Member, Advisory Panel for the Decision, Risk, and Management Science Program, NSF

2007-2013 Member, Committee on Decision Making Under Uncertainty, Institute of Medicine, National Academies

2004-2006 Member, Committee on Defense Modeling, Simulation, and Analysis, National Academies

2004 Member, Panel on Human Dynamics of Global Change, National Science Foundation (NSF)

2003-2006 Member, Board on Mathematical Sciences and their Applications, National Academies

2003-2006 Member, Senior Advisory Panel, Center for Global Security Research, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories and the International Institute for Strategic Studies, Washington DC and London

2003-2005 Member, Committee on the Transportation of Nuclear Waste, National Research Council

2002-2004 Member, Committee on the Characterization and Transportation of Transuranic Waste, National Research Council

2001-2002 Member, Committee on Alternatives for Controlling the Release of Solid Materials from Nuclear Regulatory Commission-Licensed Facilities, National Research Council

2000 Member, Panel on the EPA/NSF Program for Environmental Statistics, National Science Foundation and Environmental Protection Agency

2000-2001 Member, Committee for the Impact of Low-Level Radioactive Waste Management Policy on Biomedical Research in the United States, National Research Council

1998-2000 Member, Panel on Protecting the Health of U.S. Deployed Forces. Board on Army Science and Technology, National Research Council

1997-1999 Consultant, Committee on DOE’s Decision-Making Processes, Board on Radioactive Waste Management, National Research Council

1995 Member, Selection Panel for the National Center on Environmental

Decision Making and the National Center for Global Change, NSF

1990-1992 Member, Advisory Panel for the Decision, Risk, and Management Science Program, NSF

1990 Chairman, Committee of Visitors, Social and Economic Sciences, NSF

1989 Member, Selection Panel for the Presidential Young Investigator Awards (Social and Economic Sciences), NSF

1987-1988 Member, Committee on Risk Perception and Risk Communication, National Academy of Sciences, Washington, DC

1985-1986 Consultant, Board on Radioactive Waste Management, National Research Council, Washington, DC


SELECTED CONSULTANCIES
2005-2011 Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, CA

2009-2011 National Center for Food Protection and Defense, University of Minnesota

2008 Decision Research, Eugene, OR

2006-2008 University of Massachusetts, Amherst , MA

2004-2005 Southern California Edison

2003-2006 Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory

2002-2004 U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, DC

1998 Science Applications International Corporation, Abingdon, MD

1996-2002 California Department of Health Services, Berkeley, CA

1993-1996 U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, DC

1993-1996 Fluor Daniel Inc., Irvine, CA

1991-1995 Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, IL

1990-1996 Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM

1989-2003 Battelle-Pacific Northwest Laboratories, Richland, WA

1988-1989 Chevron Corporation, San Francisco, CA

1987-2000 Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM

1986-2000 Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, CA

1985 Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC

1984-1990 Nuclear Research Facility, Juelich, Germany

1982-1996 Joint Research Center of the European Communities, Ispra, Italy

1980 U.S. General Accounting Office, Washington, DC

RESEARCH CONTRACTS AND GRANTS

(Approximate dollar amounts in brackets; total funding at USC of approximately $40m)


2016-2020 Principal Investigator, “Strategic Resource Assessment Methodology for the US Land Ports of Entry,” Customs and Border Protection, Department of Homeland Security, Washington, DC ($2,400,000)

2016-2018 Principal Investigator, “Centers of excellence Landscape Study,” US Coast Guard Research and Development Center, New London, CT ($1,520,000)

2016-2017 Principal Investigator, “Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events”, Department of Homeland Security, Year 7 $975,000)

2015-2016 Principal Investigator, “Dynamic Aviation Risk Management,” Transportation Security Agency, Washington, DC ($800,000)

2015-2016 Principal Investigator, “Terrorism Risk Assessment,” Directorate of Science and Technology, Department of Homeland Security, Washington, DC ($770,000)

2015-2016 Co-Principal Investigator, “Development of a Disaster Deductible Formula,” Federal Emergency Management Agency, Washington, DC ($250,000)

2015-2016 Principal Investigator, “Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events”, Department of Homeland Security, Year 6 ($3.4 million)

2014-2015 Principal Investigator, “SMART Methodology for Evaluating Radiological Isotope Identification Devices,” Battelle, Pacific Northwest Laboratories, Richland, WA ($100,000)

2013-2015 Co-Investigator, “Layered Defenses Against Terrorism Using Decision and Risk Analysis”, Department of Homeland Security through the Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events, University of Southern California ($100,000 per year).

2013-2014 Principal Investigator, “Improved DNDO Testing and Evaluation - Decision Analysis and Experimental Design,” Domestic Nuclear Detection Organization, Department of Homeland Security, Washington, DC ($550,000)

2011-2013 Co-Investigator, “Using Decision Analysis to Counter Terrorism”, Department of Homeland Security through the Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events, University of Southern California ($100,000 per year).

2009-2010 Principal Investigator, “Using Risk Assessment, Economic Assessment, and Risk Management to Improve Preparedness for Terrorist Attacks and Natural Disasters,” Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events (CREATE), University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA (subcontract to IIASA, $84,000).

2008 Principal Investigator, “Using Risk Assessment, Economic Assessment, and Risk Management to Improve Preparedness for Terrorist Attacks and Natural Disasters,” National Preparedness Directorate, Department of Homeland Security, Washington, DC ($950,000).

2008-2011 Principal Investigator, “CREATE Homeland Security Educational and Career Development Program,” Department of Homeland Security, Washington, DC. ($300,000)

2008 Principal Investigator, “Understanding Risk Perception and Improving Risk Communication,” Battelle Pacific Northwest Laboratories, Richland, WA ($600,000).

2007-2008 Principal Investigator, “Estimating behavioral changes for transportation modes after terrorist attacks in London, Madrid, and Tokyo.” Metropolitan Transportation Research Center, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA. ($90,000).

2007-2008 Principal Investigator, “CREATE Homeland Security Educational and Career Development Program,” Department of Homeland Security, Washington, DC. ($480,000)

2007-2008 Principal Investigator, “Homeland Security Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events”. Department of Homeland Security, Washington, DC. (Years 4-6, $12 million)

2007-2008 Principal Investigator, “Risk and Economic Analysis Support for the National Biodefense Analysis and Countermeasures Center.” Battelle National Biodefense Institute, Frederick, MD ($600,000)

2007-2011 Principal Investigator, “Utility of critical infrastructure vulnerability assessment methodologies,” National Center for Food Defense and Protection, Minneapolis, MN. ($150,000).

2007 Principal Investigator, “Risk analysis and risk management,” Immigration and Customs Enforcement, Washington, DC ($25,000)

2007 Principal Investigator, “Macroeconomic analysis of a shutdown of the US borders to goods, travel, and migration” Department of Homeland Security, Washington, DC. ($50,000).

2005-2009 Principal Investigator, “Support for the National Center for Foreign Animal and Zoonotic Disease Defense,” Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas ($880,000).

2004-2007 Principal Investigator, “Homeland Security Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events.” Department of Homeland Security, Washington, DC. (Years 1-3; $12 million)

1999-2008 Principal Investigator. “Hospital rehabilitation decision analysis.” Multidisciplinary Center for Earthquake Engineering Research (MCEER), State University of New York at Buffalo (NSF Center), Buffalo, New York. ($220,000)

1999-2002 Co-Principal Investigator. “Improving infrastructure decisions.” Institute for Civil Infrastructure Systems (ICIS), New York University (NSF Center), New York. ($100,000)

1998-2002 Principal Investigator, “Probability elicitation with groups of experts.” National Science Foundation, Washington, DC. ($220,000)

1993-1996 Principal Investigator, "Utility theories with status quo and reference effects." National Science Foundation, Washington, DC. ($125,000)

1991-1996 Principal Investigator, “Integrated EMF Risk Management Project.” Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, CA. ($750,000)

1990-1993 Co-Principal Investigator, "Analysis of strategic government decisions." National Science Foundation, Washington, DC. ($150,000)

1989-1991 Principal Investigator, "Communicating multiattribute risks." International Life Sciences Institute, Washington, DC. ($90,000)

1989 Principal Investigator, "Development of a decision framework for improving the environmental impact statement." Council on Environmental Quality, Washington, DC. ($25,000)

1988-1989 Co-Principal Investigator, "Risk scales." Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, CA. ($60,000)

1986-1989 Co-Principal Investigator, "A methodology to evaluate the indirect health and safety risks of regulation." National Science Foundation, Washington, DC. ($90,000)

1986-1988 Principal Investigator, "The significance of value structures for formal evaluation." National Science Foundation, Washington, DC. ($150,000)

1986-1988 Co-Principal Investigator, "Development of a framework to constructively involve stakeholders in a comprehensive evaluation of alternatives involving complex technological issues." Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, CA. ($60,000)

1985-1987 Principal Investigator, "Risk communication." Environmental Protection Agency, subcontract with Putnam-Hayes, Washington, DC. ($25,000)

1985-1989 Principal Investigator, "Description, review and evaluation of the scientific bases of assumptions made in risk assessment." National Science Foundation, Washington, DC. ($300,000)

1985-1987 Principal Investigator, "Communicating risk information to laypersons: a review and assessment of the literature." National Science Foundation, Washington, DC. ($150,000)

1985-1986 Co-Principal Investigator, "Development of a workbook for structuring objectives." Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, CA. ($50,000)

1984-1986 Principal Investigator, "Risk perception, risk acceptance, and risk communication: An assessment of the state of knowledge." National Science Foundation, Washington, DC. ($150,000)

1982-1983 Principal Investigator, "On the relevance of the value-utility distinction for decision analysis." National Science Foundation, Washington, DC. ($75,000)

1982 Co-Principal Investigator, "Development of a multiattribute prioritization system for evaluating research products and systems." US. Army Corps of Engineers, Champaign, IL. ($25,000)

1981-1983 Co-Principal Investigator, "Towards developing methods for understanding public responses to risky technologies." National Science Foundation, Washington, DC. ($250,000)

1981-1982 Co-Principal Investigator, "Validation of multiattribute utility structures." Advanced Research Projects Agency, Washington, DC. ($200,000)

1979-1981 Co-Principal Investigator, "Decision analysis and behavioral decision theory." Office of Naval Research, Washington, DC. ($100,000)

1979-1980 Co-Principal Investigator, "Development of a methodology for the evaluation of risk estimates for nuclear electric power plants." Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM. ($75,000)

PUBLICATIONS: Books by the National Academies


As a member of several National Research Council committees, von Winterfeldt contributed to the following books published by the National Academy Press:
National Research Council (2013). Performance metrics for the global nuclear detection architecture. Washington, DC: National Academy Press.
Institute of Medicine (2013). Prioritzing vaccines, Vol. II. Washington, DC: National Academy Press.
National Research Council (2013). Environmental decisions in the face of uncertainty. Washington, DC: National Academy Press.
National Research Council (2007). Defense modeling, simulation, and analysis: Meeting the challenge. Washington, DC: National Academy Press.
National Research Council (2006). Going the distance? The safe transport of spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste in the United States. Washington, DC: National Academies Press.
National Research Council (2004). Improving the characterization program for contact-handled transuranic waste bound for the waste isolation pilot plant. Washington, DC: National Academies Press.
National Research Council (2002). The disposition dilemma: Controlling the release of solid materials for Nuclear Regulatory-licensed facilities. Washington, DC: National Academies Press.
National Research Council (2001). The Impact of low-level radioactive waste management policy on biomedical research in the United States. Washington, DC: National Academies Press.
National Research Council (2000). Strategies to protect the health of the deployed U.S. forces. Washington, D.C: National Academy Press.
National Research Council (1998). Decision making in the U.S. Department of Energy’s Enviromental Management Office of Science and Technology. Washington, D.C: National Academy Press.
National Research Council (1988). Improving Risk Communication. Washington, D.C: National Academy Press.

PUBLICATIONS: Books and Edited Volumes
Abbas, A., Tambe, M., & von Winterfeldt, D. (Eds.) (2017) Improving homeland security decisions. New York: Cambridge University Press, in press.
Edwards, W., Miles, R.F., & von Winterfeldt, D. (Eds.) (2007). Advances in Decision Analysis: From foundations to applications. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Bier, V. & von Winterfeldt, D. (Eds.) Terrorism Risk Analysis. (2007). Special Issue of the Journal Risk Analysis, 27, pp. 503-634.
von Winterfeldt, D. & Edwards, W. (1986). Decision analysis and behavioral research. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Keeney, R.L., Renn, O., von Winterfeldt, D., & Kotte, U. (1984). Die Wertbaumanalyse. Entscheidungshilfe fuer die Politik (Value tree analysis: Decision support for public policy). Munich, West Germany: High Tech Press.

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