Chapter-i introduction



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Table: 4.4 Sectoral Share of GDP at Factor Cost (At 2004-05 Prices) [in Per cent]

Year

Agriculture

Industry

Services

1951-52

51.45

16.69

29.63

1960-61

47.65

20.09

30.19

1970-71

34.16

23.62

33.26

1980-81

35.69

25.66

37.65

1990-91

29.53

27.63

42.55

2000-01

22.31

27.32

50.37

2009-10

14.64

28.27

57.09

Source: Handbook of Statistics on Indian economy 2010-11.

The share of primary sector has declined from 51.45% in 1951-52 to 14.64% in 2009-10. On the other side during the same period the share of services sector was consistently increasing and reached 57.09% in 2009-10 from 29.63% in 1951-52. Over this period, share of industry increased to 28.27% in 2009-10 from 16.69% in 1951-52.

A decade-wise annual trend growth rates in each sector indicates a shift towards higher growth only from the early eighties contributing to a GDP growth of 5.17% (Table-4.5).

Table: 4.5 Sector-wise Trend Growth Rate of GDP (At 1999-2000 Prices) {%}

Year

GDP at FC

Agriculture

Industry

Services

1950-51/1959-60

3.68

2.71

5.99

4.40

1960-61/1969-70

3.29

1.51

5.15

4.74

1970-71/1979-80

3.45

1.74

5.07

4.45

1980-81/1989-90

5.17

2.97

6.41

6.35

1990-91/1999-00

6.05

3.34

6.63

7.32

2000-01/2007-08

7.76

3.09

7.46

9.55

Source: Handbook of Statistics on Indian economy 2007-08.

Before that primary sector growth rate was below 2.0% in the sixties and seventies compared to a higher growth rate of 2.74% during the fifties. Secondary sector too witnessed a similar picture of high output growth in the fifties (6%) and a comparatively lesser rate 5.15% and 5.07% in the subsequent decades. Further higher rates of growth achieved in the primary and secondary sectors at 3% and 6.41% during the eighties remained unchanged in the decade that followed. In the 1990s though GDP growth was higher than the 1980s it was driven mostly by the services sector. It is the tertiary sector that has witnessed phenomenal growth from 4.40% in the fifties to 6.35% in the eighties and 7.32% in the nineties to 9.55% in the 2000s.



Chapter-V

Growth Performance of the States
The main concern of this chapter is to evaluate economic performance of states in India over the period 1980-81 to 2009-10. The differential economic performance of the states is examined by comparing the levels and growth rates of per capita income among the states during different periods. At a general level, the extent of variation in the Indian economy can be illustrated by the broad measures of the size of the state economies. There are 29 state in India with their own democratically elected assemblies. Among these, 10 states have population of more than 5 crore. There are eight states with population below half a crore. Table-1 provides the profile of the states in terms of size of the population and economies. In a view of the level of economic development, it is apparent from the fact that only seven states have a per capita GSDP more than rupees 50,000 and only one has a per capital GSDP of more than rupees 1,00,000 though this is relatively smaller states in terms of population and economic activities. Among the state with a population of more than 5 crore, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh have the lowest per capita GSDP below rupees 20,000 and Maharashtra and Gujarat which are the industrially advanced states have the per capita GSDP of more than rupees 50,000.
India is a country of extraordinary diversity, where some states are as large as many countries in Europe. Regions differ enormously in terms of geography, language, demography and social norms. Importantly, there are significant differences in levels of economic development across Indian states. India is a rare example of a developing country with long-time series data for its constituent states. Although the data has its limitations, comparability across Indian states is likely to be better than the average cross-country study (Trivedi 2002).Before analyzing the growth performance at the state level, we begin with a brief review of the growth performance at the all India level.
Table: 5.1 Size and Income of India’s states (2009-10) At Constant Prices

(Base Year 2004-05)

S.No.

States

Population (crore)

GSDP (crore)

Per Capita GDP

(Rupees)

1.

Andhra Pradesh

8.365

347344

40731

2.

Assam

3.004

69143

23279

3.

Bihar

9.685

125875

12683

4.

Jharkhand

3.087

73618

25810

5

Goa

.168

19318

116287

6.

Gujarat

5.791

330671

57267

7.

Haryana

2.485

151563

61045

8.

Himachal Pradesh

.707

35907

50783

9.

Jammu & Kashmir

1.151

36329

30886

10.

Karnataka

5.855

257125

42527

11.

Kerala

3.422

177209

52984

12.

Madhya Pradesh

7.058

168851

22538

13.

Chattisgarh

2.450

71221

31052

14.

Maharashtra

11.049

701550

63497

15.

Manipur

.267

6767

25344

16.

Meghalaya

.258

9814

34118

17.

Orissa

4.04

118201

29716

18.

Punjab

2.851

139056

49453

19.

Rajasthan

6.621

184189

26836

20

Tamil Nadu

6.684

350258

52112

21

Tripura

.356

13061

34433

22

Uttar Pradesh

19.584

365761

18564

23

Uttaranchal

.974

47599

16787

24

West Bengal

8.834

296843

33398




All India

117.00

4507637

38526

Source: Directorate of Economics and statistics of respective state Governments and for All India – CSO, Government of india, (As on 1-3-2012) & National Income Statistics Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (July 2011). Mid Year population from CMIE 2011.

Table: 5.2 Annual Growth Rate of the Major Sectors (From 1980-81 to 2009-10) in percentage.

Years

Agriculture

Industry

Services

Real GDP at FC

1980-81

14.44

5.24

4.62

7.17

1981-82

4.86

8.01

5.19

5.63

1982-83

-0.14

1.42

7.13

2.92

1983-84

10.75

7.88

5.72

7.85

1984-85

1.48

4.08

6.10

3.96

1985-86

0.2

4.38

7.67

4.16

1986-87

-0.39

5.76

7.59

4.31

1987-88

-1.73

5.57

6.35

5.53

1988-89

16.85

9.10

6.95

10.16

1989-90

0.40

8.30

8.88

6.13

1990-91

4.28

7.33

5.19

5.29

1991-92

-2.31

0.34

4.69

1.43

1992-93

7.06

3.22

5.69

5.36

1993-94

3.18

5.50

7.38

5.68

1994-95

4.74

9.16

5.84

6.39

1995-96

-0.98

11.29

10.11

7.29

1996-97

10.40

6.39

7.53

7.97

1997-98

-2.97

4.01

8.93

4.30

1998-99

7.12

4.15

8.28

6.68

1999-00

2.41

5.96

11.19

7.59

2000-01

-0.61

6.03

5.37

4.30

2001-02

6.46

2.61

6.88

5.52

2002-03

-8.14

7.21

6.97

3.99

2003-04

10.84

7.32

8.06

8.06

2004-05

0.07

9.81

8.13

6.97

2005-06

5.53

9.72

10.91

9.48

2006-07

4.13

12.17

10.06

9.57

2007-08

6.34

9.67

10.27

9.32

2008-09

-0.27

4.44

9.98

6.72

2009-10

0.41

9.16

10.50

8.59

Source: CSO, Government of India

During the three decades period from the early 1950’s t0 80’s, the Indian economy was witnessing so called “Hindu rate of growth” of 3.5 per cent per annum, though growth rate had increased to 5.5 per cent in the 1980’s and further to 6 per cent in1994 -2004. The growth has been by far the best in the 2004-10. While the growth rate of the Indian economy has been increasing in recent times, one phenomenon which was observed was that the growth performance of the three major sector s of the Indian economy, namely, agriculture, industry and services has been diverse. The growth in the agriculture sector has been the most volatile and also the least among the three sectors most of the times. While the growth in the industrial sector has remained more or less constant, growth in the services sector has risen sharply. It is very clear from the Figure 5.1.



Figure: 5.1 Annual Growth rates of the Major Sectors.

The consequence of the diverse growth rate in the three sectors has resulted in a structural change in the contribution of the sectors in the total GDP. The share of the agriculture sector in the overall GDP has declined from 35.69 percent in 1980-81 to 14.45 percent in 2009-10. The share of the industrial sector has increased from 25.66 percent in 1980-81 to 28.27 percent in 2009-10. The share of the services sector has almost doubled from 37.65 per cent in 1980-81 to 57.09 per cent in 2009-10.




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