Business Cycles synchronicity and income levels: has globalization brought us closer than ever? Rosmy Jean Louis* Daniel Simons Abstract



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Table 11 Synchronicity Across Income Groups based on Various Reference Cycles – Subsamples 1970-1989 and 1990 - 2008

Minimum Gap

Reference Cycles

1970 - 1989




1990 - 2008

Criteria

Country

Bivariate

Multivariate




Country

Bivariate

Multivariate

MiniMin / AD HOC Minimum

Luxembourg*

0.77

0.95




Sweden*

0.52

0.55

Global Reference

Luxembourg*

0.77

0.95




Sweden*

0.52

0.55

Global Reference but *

Congo = N/A










Haiti = N/A




Global Reference OECD but *

New Zealand

0.64

0.80




France

0.60

0.75

AD HOC Reference 1

France

0.71

0.80




France

0.60

0.75

AD HOC Reference 2

USA

0.55

0.75




USA

0.40

0.50

























Average Synchronicity Ratio




0.67

0.83







0.51

0.60

Comparable Average




0.67

0.83







0.53

0.64

























Maximum Average and Maximum Median Growth Rate




1970 - 1989




1990 - 2008

Criteria

Country

Bivariate

Multivariate




Country

Bivariate

Multivariate

MiniMin / AD HOC Minimum

Luxembourg*

0.71

0.7




Sweden*

0.53

0.5

Global Reference

Luxembourg*

0.71

0.7




Sweden*

0.53

0.5

Global Reference but *

Congo = N/A










Ireland

0.56

0.5

Global Reference OECD but *

New Zealand

0.57

0.55




Ireland

0.56

0.5

AD HOC Reference 1

France

0.72

0.75




France

0.7

0.8

AD HOC Reference 2

USA

0.62

0.75




USA

0.52

0.55

























Average Synchronicity Ratio




0.655

0.6875







0.5775

0.5875

Comparable Average




0.655

0.6875







0.5775

0.5875

























Median_Average_Growth_Rate_____1970_-_1989'>Median Average Growth Rate




1970 - 1989




1990 - 2008

Criteria

Country

Bivariate

Multivariate




Country

Bivariate

Multivariate

MiniMin / AD HOC Minimum

France

0.78

0.9




Sweden

0.56

0.6

Global Reference

Luxembourg*

0.66

0.75




Sweden*

0.56

0.6

Global Reference but *

Qatar

0.6

0.6




Haiti = N/A




Global Reference OECD but *

New Zealand

0.64

0.7




France

0.62

0.7

AD HOC Reference 1

France

0.78

0.9




France

0.62

0.7

AD HOC Reference 2

USA

0.53

0.6




USA

0.51

0.65

























Average Synchronicity Ratio




0.642

0.71







0.563333

0.65

Comparable Average




0.6825

0.775







0.5775

0.6625

























Median




1970 - 1989




1990 - 2008

Criteria

Country

Bivariate

Multivariate




Country

Bivariate

Multivariate

MiniMin / AD HOC Minimum

N/A

N/A

N/A




N/A

N/A

N/A

Global Reference

Luxembourg*

0.71

0.7




Sweden*

0.48

0.6

Global Reference but *

Qatar

0.68

0.8




Haiti = N/A




Global Reference OECD but *

New Zealand

0.64

0.7




Norway

0.68

0.65

AD HOC Reference 1

France

0.74

0.8




France

0.62

0.8

AD HOC Reference 2

USA

0.6

0.85




USA

0.36

0.55

























Average Synchronicity Ratio




0.674

0.77







0.535

0.65

Comparable Average




0.66

0.783333333







0.553333

0.666666667

Note:


-The Comparable Average is average of the MiniMin/AD HOC Minimum , the Global Reference OECD but* and the AD HOC References.

- The Global Reference cycle is the country with the minimum average output gap in the big pool. Since Luxembourg and Sweden kept reappearing as Global Reference, an effort was made to rid the results of such bias by computing the minimum average gap for the pool while setting aside these two countries. Common sense was used to either accept the alternative found or look into the pool for an OECD country, hence the terms Global Reference but * and Global Reference OECD but *. USA is of course used an ad hoc reference since it is the largest economy of the world. We have also brought France as another ad hoc whenever none of the criteria pointed to France. This accords with our earlier finding that France might play an even greater role than the USA in driving the world business cycle.




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