Business Cycles synchronicity and income levels: has globalization brought us closer than ever? Rosmy Jean Louis* Daniel Simons Abstract



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Table 13









1970-1989







USA




France







Lag

Lead




Lag

Lead

Pool




Bivariate__Multivariate__Bivariate'>Bivariate

Multivariate

Bivariate

Multivariate

Bivariate

Multivariate

Bivariate

Multivariate


































Minimum Gap




0.70

0.65

0.17

0.20




0.22

0.25

0.25

0.20

Median




0.63

0.55

0.43

0.35




0.34

0.30

0.35

0.40

Maximum_Average & Max_Median




0.60

0.40

0.25

0.15




0.18

0.25

0.34

0.30

Median_Average




0.54

0.45

0.36

0.20




0.25

0.20

0.44

0.45








































1990-2008







USA




France







Lag

Lead




Lag

Lead







Bivariate

Multivariate

Bivariate

Multivariate

Bivariate

Multivariate

Bivariate

Multivariate


































Minimum Gap




0.55

0.50

0.32

0.30




0.35

0.30

0.33

0.35

Median




0.60

0.50

0.20

0.32




0.26

0.33

0.36

0.50

Maximum_Average & Max_Median




0.62

0.42

0.32

0.42




0.31

0.53

0.34

0.37

Median_Average




0.70

0.68

0.17

0.21




0.22

0.26

0.25

0.21








































1970-2008







USA




France







Lag

Lead




Lag

Lead







Bivariate

Multivariate

Bivariate

Multivariate

Bivariate

Multivariate

Bivariate

Multivariate


































Minimum Gap




0.52

0.58

0.40

0.34




0.34

0.40

0.40

0.45

Median




0.55

0.50

0.34

0.34




0.32

0.34

0.31

0.40

Maximum_Average &Max_Median (Bhutan)




0.47

0.51

0.42

0.38




0.32

0.38

0.34

0.43

Maximum_Average &Max_Median (Vietnam)

0.55

0.60

0.40

0.35




0.37

0.46

0.35

0.38

Median_Average




0.65

0.62

0.36

0.30




0.43

0.38

0.40

0.46



































Table 14: Panel Logit estimation


Method

MINIMUM GAP

MEDIAN AVERAGE

Reference country

France

USA

Median

France

USA

UK

OPt

 0.2469

(0.1755)


0.0406

(0.1770)


 0.1392

(0.1588)


 0.4158*

(0.1529)


0.4438*

(0.1606)


 0.6757*

(0.1626)


Ct

 0.5975

(0.4071)


-0.3407

(0.4112)


 0.1519

(0.3309)


 0.1054

(0.4794)


0.3910

(0.8367)


 0.5250

(0.5023)


TRt

 -0.0535

(0.1068)


 -0.2351

(0.1957)


 -0.1424

(0.2232)


 0.0552

(0.0987)


 0.0894

(.1506)


0.1861

(0.1461) 



N

# of groups

Obs. per group


2584

68

38



2280

60

38



2812

74

38



2698

71

38



2090

55

38



2280

60

38





 




 







 

Method

MAXIMUM AVERAGE & MAXIMUM MEDIAN WITH BHUTAN

MAXIMUM AVERAGE & MAXIMUM MEDIAN WITH VIETNAM

Reference country

Monaco

Ireland

USA

Monaco

Ireland

USA

OPt

 0.3002**

(0.1750)


0.5196*

(0.2017)


 -0.3156**

(0.1662)


0.3132*

(0.1319)


 0.5048*

(0.1544)


 -0.2529

(0.1775)


Ct

 -0.3222

(0.7317)


-1.2308*

(0.5356)


0.3838

(0.5248) 



-0.0155

(0.4752


 -0.7170**

(0.4122)


 0.2668

(0.2783)


TRt

 -0.0965

(0.0971)


 0.1226

(0.1052)


 -0.2089

(0.2328)


-0.1015

(0.0957


 0.0639

(.1571)


 -0.2326

(0.2393)


N

# of groups

Obs. per group


2318

61

38



1558

41

38



1862

49

38



2432

64

38



1748

46

38



1938

51

38



Standard errors in parentheses are based on 1000 bootstrap replications. * denotes statistical significance at 5% level and ** denotes significance at 10% level.


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