Business Cycles synchronicity and income levels: has globalization brought us closer than ever? Rosmy Jean Louis* Daniel Simons Abstract



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Table 12 Synchronicity of the Reference Cycles – Subsample Analysis






1970-1989







1990-2008




USA

UK

CHINA

France







USA

UK

CHINA

France

CONGO DEM. REP.

0.33

0.22

0.33

0.44




HAITI

0.28

0.44

0.50

0.44

INDONESIA

0.44

0.44

0.44

0.56




MALAWI

0.44

0.39

0.67

0.39

NEPAL

0.67

0.44

0.44

0.67




MYANMAR

0.67

0.61

0.44

0.72

CHINA

0.78

0.67

1.00

0.67




CHINA

0.56

0.61

1.00

0.61

MOROCCO

0.39

0.50

0.39

0.61




IRAN

0.50

0.33

0.50

0.33

NAURU

0.56

0.44

0.56

0.44




JAMAICA

0.56

0.28

0.44

0.39

BOTSWANA

0.72

0.61

0.61

0.61




EQUATORIAL GUINEA

0.56

0.50

0.67

0.50

CHILE

0.39

0.28

0.39

0.50




GABON

0.33

0.61

0.44

0.50

SOUTH AFRICA

0.61

0.50

0.50

0.72




FRANCE

0.61

0.89

0.61

1.00

FRANCE

0.67

0.67

0.67

1.00




IRELAND

0.72

0.44

0.39

0.56

ICELAND

0.44

0.33

0.44

0.56




SWEDEN

0.72

0.56

0.39

0.67

LUXEMBOURG

0.67

0.67

0.67

0.89




UNITED STATES

1.00

0.50

0.56

0.61

USA

1.00

0.78

0.78

0.67




ANDORRA

0.67

0.50

0.44

0.61

ARUBA

0.56

0.44

0.56

0.56




ANTIGUA BARBUDA

0.61

0.56

0.39

0.56

FRENCH POLYNESIA

0.39

0.61

0.28

0.61




VIRGIN ISLAND (Britain)

0.44

0.72

0.33

0.61

QATAR

0.83

0.72

0.61

0.72




UNITED KINGDOM

0.50

1.00

0.61

0.89

UNITED KINGDOM

0.78

1.00

0.67

0.67




















































Bivariate Synchronization Ratio

0.63

0.44

0.50

0.81







0.60

0.47

0.33

0.60

Multivariate Synchronization Ratio

0.70

0.60

0.50

0.75







0.55

0.55

0.45

0.65

Synchronized Cycles Count

11.00

8.00

9.00

14.00







10.00

8.00

6.00

10.00

Each country of reference is linked to a group of countries of certain level of real income per capita. By transitive association, synchronicity of

business cycles between country of reference j and either USA, UK, China, or France applies to the whole group of countries linked to country j.

The bivariate synchronization ratio is the number of synchronized cycles greater than 0.50 divided by the sum of synchronized and divergent cycles

over time. The multivariate synchronization ratio is the horizontal average of the matching of the reference cycle with the individual cycle at every

point in time that is positive divided by the total of all averages (both positive and negative).This Table for example shows that countries with cycles

linked to Qatar will likely react similarly to economic disturbances affecting USA, UK, China, and France whereas countries with cycles linked to

Democratic Republic of Congo or Haiti will not share such similarity.


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