Warming Core ddw ‘12 Warming Core

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Warming Core

DDW ‘12

Warming Core

Warming Core 1

**Warming Bad 4

Warming Bad – Ag/Biodiversity 1/3 4

Warming Bad – Ag/Biodiversity 2/3 5

Warming Bad – Ag/Biodiversity 3/3 6

Warming Bad – Biodiversity 8

Warming Bad – Economy 9

A2 CO2 Key to Ag 10

A2 Ice Age 11

A2 Ice Age Coming 13

Ice Caps Impact 14

Impact Magnifier 15

**Advantage CP 17

Carbon Tax CP 17

Carbon Tax Solves Emissions 1/2 18

Carbon Tax Solves Emissions 2/2 20

Carbon Tax Generates Revenue 21

Carbon Tax Solves Econ 22

A2 Carbon Tax CP 23

**A2 Solvency 24

Warming Inevitable 24

Alt Causes 1/2 25

Alt Causes 2/2 27

A2 CO2 Reductions Solve 28

A2 China Key 29

**Real 30

Warming is Real 30

Warming is Anthropogenic 31

CO2 → Warming 1/2 33

CO2 → Warming 2/2 35

A2 Warming Inevitable 37

**Not Real 39

No Warming 1/2 39

No Warming 2/2 40

Not Anthro 41

CO2 ≠ Warming 42

Yes Bias 1/2 43

Yes Bias 2/2 44

A2 Emissions → Warming 45

A2 Climate Research 46

A2 Greenhouse Theory 47

**Impact Defense 48

War Outweighs 48

A2: Peak Oil 49

A2 Warming × Agriculture 50

A2 Warming × Biodiversity 51

A2 Warming → Civil Wars 52

A2 Warming × Human Health 53

A2 Warming × Ice Caps 54

A2 Warming → Malaria 55

A2 Warming → Resource Wars 56

A2 Warming → Rising Sea Levels 57

A2 Warming → Water Wars 58

**Warming Good 59

Warming Good – Agriculture 1/3 59

Warming Good – Agriculture 2/3 60

Warming Good – Agriculture 2/3 62

Agriculture Impact 64

Warming Good – Ice Age 1/2 65

Warming Good – Ice Age 2/2 66

Ice Age Coming 67

Ice Age O/Ws 68

Warming Core 1

**Warming Bad 4

Warming Bad – Ag/Biodiversity 1/3 4

Warming Bad – Ag/Biodiversity 2/3 5

Warming Bad – Ag/Biodiversity 3/3 6

Warming Bad – Biodiversity 7

Warming Bad – Economy 8

A2 CO2 Key to Ag 9

A2 Ice Age 10

A2 Ice Age Coming 11

Ice Caps Impact 12

Impact Magnifier 13

**Advantage CP 14

Carbon Tax CP 14

Carbon Tax Solves Emissions 1/2 15

Carbon Tax Solves Emissions 2/2 16

Carbon Tax Generates Revenue 17

Carbon Tax Solves Econ 18

A2 Carbon Tax CP 19

**A2 Solvency 20

Warming Inevitable 20

Alt Causes 1/2 21

Alt Causes 2/2 22

A2 CO2 Reductions Solve 23

A2 China Key 24

**Real 25

Warming is Real 25

Warming is Anthropogenic 26

CO2 → Warming 1/2 27

CO2 → Warming 2/2 28

A2 Warming Inevitable 29

**Not Real 30

No Warming 1/2 30

No Warming 2/2 31

Not Anthro 32

CO2 ≠ Warming 33

Yes Bias 1/2 34

Yes Bias 2/2 35

A2 Emissions → Warming 36

A2 Climate Research 37

A2 Greenhouse Theory 38

**Impact Defense 39

War Outweighs 39

A2: Peak Oil 40

A2 Warming × Agriculture 41

A2 Warming × Biodiversity 42

A2 Warming → Civil Wars 43

A2 Warming × Human Health 44

A2 Warming × Ice Caps 45

A2 Warming → Malaria 46

A2 Warming → Resource Wars 47

A2 Warming → Rising Sea Levels 48

A2 Warming → Water Wars 49

**Warming Good 50

Warming Good – Agriculture 1/3 50

Warming Good – Agriculture 2/3 51

Warming Good – Agriculture 2/3 52

Agriculture Impact 53

Warming Good – Ice Age 1/2 54

Warming Good – Ice Age 2/2 55

Ice Age Coming 56

Ice Age O/Ws 57

**Warming Bad

Warming Bad – Ag/Biodiversity 1/3

Warming destroys ag and causes loss of biodiversity – squo levels of warming prevents adaptation

Revkin ‘8 (ANDREW C. REVKIN, correspondent for the New York Times, Jan. 24, “Earth Scientists Express Rising Concern Over Warming”, http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/01/24/earth-scientists-express-rising-concern-over-warming/)

During recent millennia of relatively stable climate, civilization became established and populations have grown rapidly. In the next 50 years, even the lower limit of impending climate change — an additional global mean warming of 1 degree Celsius above the last decade — is far beyond the range of climate variability experienced during the past thousand years and poses global problems in planning for and adapting to it. Warming greater than 2 degrees Celsius above 19th century levels is projected to be disruptive, reducing global agricultural productivity, causing widespread loss of biodiversity, and — if sustained over centuries — melting much of the Greenland ice sheet with ensuing rise in sea level of several meters. If this 2 degrees Celsius warming is to be avoided, then our net annual emissions of carbon dioxide must be reduced by more than 50 percent within this century. With such projections, there are many sources of scientific uncertainty, but none are known that could make the impact of climate change inconsequential. Given the uncertainty in climate projections, there can be surprises that may cause more dramatic disruptions than anticipated from the most probable model projections.

Climate change and CO2 destroys crops

US EPA June 14th, 2012 (United States Environmental Protection Agency, “Agriculture and Food Supply Impacts & Adaptation”, http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/impacts-adaptation/agriculture.html)

Crops grown in the United States are critical for the food supply here and around the world. U.S. exports supply more than 30% of all wheat, corn, and rice on the global market. [2] Changes in temperature, amount of carbon dioxide (CO2), and the frequency and intensity of extreme weather could have significant impacts on crop yields. Warmer temperatures may make many crops grow more quickly, but warmer temperatures could also reduce yields. Crops tend to grow faster in warmer conditions. However, for some crops (such as grains), faster growth reduces the amount of time that seeds have to grow and mature. [1] This can reduce yields (i.e., the amount of crop produced from a given amount of land). For any particular crop, the effect of increased temperature will depend on the crop's optimal temperature for growth and reproduction. [1] In some areas, warming may benefit the types of crops that are typically planted there. However, if warming exceeds a crop's optimum temperature, yields can decline. Higher CO2 levels can increase yields. The yields for some crops, like wheat and soybeans, could increase by 30% or more under a doubling of CO2 concentrations. The yields for other crops, such as corn, exhibit a much smaller response (less than 10% increase). [3] However, some factors may counteract these potential increases in yield. For example, if temperature exceeds a crop's optimal level or if sufficient water and nutrients are not available, yield increases may be reduced or reversed. More extreme temperature and precipitation can prevent crops from growing. Extreme events, especially floods and droughts, can harm crops and reduce yields. For example, in 2008, the Mississippi River flooded just before the harvest period for many crops, causing an estimated loss of $8 billion for farmers. [1] Dealing with drought could become a challenge in areas where summer temperatures are projected to increase and precipitation is projected to decrease. As water supplies are reduced, it may be more difficult to meet water demands. Many weeds, pests and fungi thrive under warmer temperatures, wetter climates, and increased CO2 levels. Currently, farmers spend more than $11 billion per year to fight weeds in the United States. [1] The ranges of weeds and pests are likely to expand northward. This would cause new problems for farmers' crops previously unexposed to these species. Moreover, increased use of pesticides and fungicides may negatively affect human health. [1]

Warming Bad – Ag/Biodiversity 2/3

Warming destroys world supplies of crops

Common Dreams.org Jan 29th, 2012 (independent, non-profit newscenter providing breaking news & views to the progressive community, “New Study: Global Warming Threatens World's Wheat Crop” http://www.commondreams.org/headline/2012/01/29-2)

A study released Sunday afternoon finds that wheat crop yields could plunge due, in part, to climate change. Extreme temperatures are already cutting wheat yields in India (Narinder Nanu/AFP) The study, published in Nature Climate Change, researchers warn that current projections underestimate the extent to which hotter weather in the future will accelerate this process. Extreme heat causes wheat crops to age faster and reduce yields, the Stanford University-led study shows, underscoring the challenge of feeding a rapidly growing population as the world continues to warm. New Scientist magazine reported Sunday: It could be much more difficult than we thought to feed everyone in a warmer world. Satellite images of northern India have revealed that extreme temperatures are cutting wheat yields. What's more, models used to predict the effects of global warming on food supply may have underestimated the problem by a third. Two-thirds of wheat in poor countries, and 23 per cent in rich countries – nearly half the world's total crop – is at risk from warming.In India's breadbasket, the Ganges plain, winter wheat is planted in November and harvested as temperatures rise in spring. David Lobell of Stanford University in California used nine years of images from the MODIS Earth-observation satellite to track when wheat in this region turned from green to brown, a sign that the grain is no longer growing. He found that the wheat turned brown earlier when average temperatures were higher, with spells over 34 ºC having a particularly strong effect. [...] Lobell's work suggests losses could be sooner and greater. "This is an early indication that a situation that was already bad could be even worse," says Andy Challinor of the University of Leeds, UK. Previous estimates suggested that by 2050, warming could cut wheat yields by 30 per cent in places like India – a figure that may now be optimistic. Yet global yields need to rise 50 per cent by then to feed the growing population. Reuters reports: Extreme heat can cause wheat crops to age faster and reduce yields, a U.S.-led study shows, underscoring the challenge of feeding a rapidly growing population as the world warms. Scientists and farmers have long known that high heat can hurt some crops and the Stanford University-led study, released Sunday, revealed how the damage is done by tracking rates of wheat aging, or senescence. Depending on the sowing date, the grain losses from rapid senescence could reach up to 20 percent, the scientists found in the study, published in the journal Nature Climate Change. [...] Climate scientists say that episodes of extreme heat are becoming more frequent and more prevalent across the globe, presenting huge challenges for growing crops. Wheat is the second most produced crop in the world after corn and the United Nation's Food and Agriculture Organization says global food production must increase by 70 percent by 2050 to feed a larger, more urban and affluent population. Wheat is particularly sensitive to temperature and is typically sown in late autumn or early winter and harvested before the heat of summer. Agence France-Presse adds: Wheat also faces another possibly climate-related threat: aggressive new strains of wheat rust disease have decimated up to 40 percent of harvests in some regions of north Africa, the Middle East and Central Asia. Wheat rust is a fungal disease that attacks the stems, grains and especially the leaves of grains including wheat, barley and rye. Global warming and increased variability of rainfall have weakened the plants even as these emerging rust strains have adapted to extreme temperatures not seen before, scientists say. In November, the UN's climate science panel concluded that man-made climate change has boosted the frequency or intensity of heat waves, and that such extreme weather events are virtually certain to increase in the future. If greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated, one-in-20-year heat peaks would likely occur every five years by about 2050, and every year or two by the end of the century, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) said in a 1,000-page report.
Warming kills livestock

US EPA June 14th, 2012 (United States Environmental Protection Agency, “Agriculture and Food Supply Impacts & Adaptation”, http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/impacts-adaptation/agriculture.html)

Americans consume more than 37 million tons of meat annually. [2] The U.S. livestock industry produced $100 billion worth of goods in 2002. [4] Changes in climate could affect animals both directly and indirectly. Heat waves, which are projected to increase under climate change, could directly threaten livestock. A number of states have each reported losses of more than 5,000 animals from just one heat wave. [1] Heat stress affects animals both directly and indirectly. Over time, heat stress can increase vulnerability to disease, reduce fertility, and reduce milk production. Drought may threaten pasture and feed supplies. Drought reduces the amount of quality forage available to grazing livestock. Some areas could experience longer, more intense droughts, resulting from higher summer temperatures and reduced precipitation. For animals that rely on grain, changes in crop production due to drought could also become a problem. Climate change may increase the prevalence of parasites and diseases that affect livestock.The earlier onset of spring and warmer winters could allow some parasites and pathogens to survive more easily. In areas with increased rainfall, moisture-reliant pathogens could thrive. [3]

Warming Bad – Ag/Biodiversity 3/3
Genetic crop adaptation doesn’t solve agriculture

Coco Liu April 2, 2012 (E&E Asian correspondent, E&E News, “As climate becomes less certain, so does China's ability to feed itself”, http://www.eenews.net/public/climatewire/2012/04/02/1)

Worse yet, China is losing its ability to produce more. During the past decades, farmers here have enjoyed an explosion of productivity, thanks partly to genetically manipulated crops that are higher-yielding and resistant to pests and diseases. But today, that help is starting to fade away, as it is falling victim to climate change. "In the 1970s, when we used genetic engineering technology to breed regionally adopted crops, we could enjoy its high yield for years; now that period is much shorter," said Pan Genxing, director of Agriculture and Climate Change Center at Nanjing Agriculture University. What is defeating the technology, according to Pan, is that the environment in which the crops grow keeps changing due to climate change, making regionally adopted crops no longer a fit for the region they were designed to.
Climate change reduce yields of crops- evaporation overwhelms precipitation rates

Cline 08

(William R. Cline is an American economist with a Ph.D at Yale; and a member of the Center for Global Development; Finance and Development, “Global Warming and Agriculture”, March 2008; http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2008/03/pdf/cline.pdf, pg. 27, DOA: 6-30-12)

Climate change can affect agriculture in a variety of ways. Beyond a certain range of temperatures, warming tends to reduce yields because crops speed through their development, producing less grain in the process. And higher temperatures also interfere with the ability of plants to get and use moisture. Evaporation from the soil accelerates when temperatures rise and plants increase transpiration—that is, lose more moisture from their leaves. The combined effect is called “evapotranspiration.” Because global warming is likely to increase rainfall, the net impact of higher temperatures on water availability is a race between higher evapotranspiration and higher precipitation. Typically, that race is won by higher evapotranspiration.
Warming brings beetle infestation, and droughts which will hurt forest populations

Washington Post 5/13/12

(Washington Post, “Global warming threatens pine forests, forcing federal officials to shift strategy”, May 13, 2012, http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/global-warming-threatens-pine-forests-forcing-federal-officials-to-shift-strategy/2012/05/13/gIQAEHVXNU_story.html, pg. 1, DOA: 6-30-12)

The conifer, with its accoutrements, represents a small salvo in the battle against a beetle infestation, fueled partly by warmer temperatures. But it is also a larger symbol of how researchers from the Forest Service — in concert with National Park Service officials and other scientists — are working to steel high-elevation pine forests in the West against the onslaught of climate change. Scientists know that global warming will reshape these forests, which provide crucial habitat and food for key species, curb soil erosion and slow melting snow destined for local water supplies. What they don’t yet understand is which trees are best poised to survive under these changed conditions and how they can help them adapt in the decades to come. Although it’s had its share of pests and pathogens, the pine forest here is in better shape than some nearby. Scientists are trying to figure out how to keep it that way.Global warming could affect everything from national forests’ and grasslands’ vegetation to their stream flows, and the agency has a comprehensive plan to deal with it. Managers must keep a performance score card on everything from how educated staff are on climate change to how much carbon is stored in trees and vegetation in their areas. They’ve started planting some species at higher elevations, such as yellow cedar in Alaska, and near river banks to lower stream temperatures. And they’ve launched a pilot project to assess the vulnerability of watersheds in a dozen national forests. At Virginia’s George Washington and Jefferson National Forests, for example, managers are planning to construct stream crossings and bridges that can withstand major storm events, and to use fire more frequently to restore pine forests under pressure from the Southern pine beetle. Out West, high-elevation five-needle pines — which include the species whitebark, limber, foxtail, Southwestern white, Rocky Mountain bristlecone and Great Basin bristlecone — are particularly vulnerable to climate change. Warmer temperatures have allowed native beetles to grow and feed on trees at a faster rate. Water deprivation and drought can also hurt them, and they can be crowded out by other tree species migrating to higher altitudes.

Warming Bad – Biodiversity

Climate change will cause max extinction of species

Bellard et al. Jan 18th, 2012 (Bellard, C., Bertelsmeier, C., Leadley, P., Thuiller, W. and Courchamp, F. (2012), "Impacts of climate change on the future of biodiversity. Ecology Letters, 15: 365–377)

Ecologists are developing a better understanding of the mechanisms by which species and ecosystems can be impacted by climate change. The timing of species’ life cycle events is expected to be further altered, species distributions will change radically, trophic networks will be affected and ecosystem functioning may be severely impaired, leading in the worst cases to countless species extinctions. Over the past decades, some of this understanding has been effectively translated into mathematical models that can be used to forecast climate change impacts on species distributions, abundance and extinctions. These models are characterised by their high diversity of underlying structures and assumptions, with predictions differing greatly depending on the models used and species studied. Most of these models indicate alarming consequences for biodiversity with worst-case scenarios leading to extinction rates that would qualify as the sixth mass extinction in the history of the earth (Barnosky et al. 2011). However, all current approaches have serious weaknesses. An evaluation of known mechanisms of climate impacts on biodiversity suggests that the lack of several key mechanisms in models may lead to either very large underestimations or overestimations of risks for biodiversity. Improvements in existing models and, in particular, a new generation of models must address the shortcomings of current models to reduce uncertainties. It is also crucial to improve our understanding of the vulnerability of biodiversity to climate change, to develop other predictive approaches and to go beyond predictions.
Warming Bad – Economy

Global warming collapses the economy

Stanley Rice May 17th, 2012

(Professor of Biological Sciences at Southeastern Oklahoma State University, “GLOBAL WARMING, GLOBAL DISRUPTION”, http://stanleyrice.com/presentations/Global_Warming_May_2012.pdf, DOA: 7-1-12)

[Slide 3] Our national and world economy is precariously based on the assumption that climatic conditions will remain the same in the future as they have been in the past. Global warming is going to negate that assumption. Even a little bit of climate change can cause disruption to our economy and to the natural world. [Slide 4] Global warming is not the only process that threatens to disrupt our economy in the future. Population growth is also a threat. For example, the rapid population growth in the American southwest is already putting strain on water supplies. Global climate change mayreduce snowpack in the Rockies and Sierra Nevada and encourage the spread of deserts. The intersection of rapid population growth and global-climate-change-induced water shortages may prove disastrous for the American economy. A similar situation is developing in the Himalayas, Andes, and Africa.

A2 CO2 Key to Ag
Plants can’t store all the excess CO2 in the environment -

National Science Foundation ’06

[National Science Foundation, NSF, is an independent federal organization created by the Congress that addresses the issue of advancing health and science; Apr 13, “Higher Carbon Dioxide, Lack of Nitrogen Limit Plan Growth,” http://www.nsf.gov/news/news_summ.jsp?cntn_id=106861, DOA: 7-1-12]

Earth's plant life will not be able to "store" excess carbon from rising atmospheric carbon dioxide levels as well as scientists once thought because plants likely cannot get enough nutrients, such as nitrogen, when there are higher levels of carbon dioxide, according to scientists publishing in this week's issue of the journal Nature. That, in turn, is likely to dampen the ability of plants to offset increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide. "We found that atmospheric carbon dioxide levels may rise even faster than anticipated, because ecosystems likely will not store as much carbon as had been predicted," said Peter Reich of the University of Minnesota, lead author of the study, which was conducted at the National Science Foundation (NSF)'s Cedar Creek Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) site in Minn.
A2 Ice Age
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