The Incredible, Wild, Whacky, Scary, SuperCool Future … and Why We’re Not Even Remotely Prepared, and What We Can Do About It, for the Sake of of Our Careers, Work and Organizations: A Musing on Strategies, Tactics, Attitudes, Tips, and General Observations, Such as … Why a CFO Should Never Be Promoted to CEO, Why all Big Mergers stink (except on Wall Street @ bonus time), Why scale economies are over-rated, How to beat Wal*Mart, Why All MBA Programs Should Be Closed, How the “2Bs” (Bentonville and Beijing) Became the Co-capitols of the Universe, Why Only Freaks Get Things Done (in Freaky Times), Why Outrageously Audacious Devotion to Game-changing Innovation Is the Premier Survival Requisite, Why Decentralization is still the most Potent Medicine available, Why Women Are Better Leaders Than Men (and They Also Buy Everything, Though Just Try Telling That to the World’s Advertising “Geniuses”), Why Hospitals are “The Killing Fields,” and How UPS & IBM Are Actually All About Love!
THREE BILLION NEW CAPITALISTS —Clyde Prestowitz
Conference = Time Out Is not: about “picking up tips on data base privacy issues” Is: about re-imagining marketing and the idea of a truly/no-bull customer-centric enterprise (Might be: about “Gasp-worthy” game-changing breakthroughs)
Re-imagine! Not Your Father’s World I.
THE CUSTOMER IS GOD AND THE MARKET DECIDES EVERYTHING Source: Banner, Hua Xin Dress Co, Ltd., Rongcheng Industry Zone
“The Ultimate Luxury Item Is Now Made in China” —Headline/p1/The New York Times/ 07.13.2004/ Topic: Luxury Yachts made in Zhongshan
“A Return to Quotas: Limits on Textiles Could Push China Toward Making Upscale Goods” —Headline, NYT, 11.05
“Vaunted German Engineers Face Competition From China” —Headline, p1/WSJ/07.15.2004
“U.S. manufacturers and retailers are shifting their domestic warehouses and distribution facilities to China as they seek to make supply chains more efficient” —Headline, page 1, Financial Times, 11.07.2005
“China’s Next Export: Innovation” —McKinsey Quarterly (Cover Story)
“From Gunpowder to the Next Big Bang: Modern China Is Set to Get Creative” —Headline, NYT, 11.05
2003: 98% U.S. 2005: U.S. 150; Shanghai 500
168/ 18,500/ 51,000
1 Houston/ Month/15
China’s share of global consumption/2005: Cement … 47% Cotton … 37% Coal … 30% Steel … 26% Source: BusinessWeek/08.05
Savings, internal investment, external investment > 50% GDP
2.5M vs 7.1M 40/40
“Suddenly, China is the No. 3 consumer of high-end goods” Source: BusinessWeek, 0206.06 (from “To Get Rich Is Glorious”)
600,000 350,000 70,000
600,000/engineering degrees/2004/China 350,000/engineering degrees/2004/India 70,000/engineering degrees/2004/U.S.A. Source: “Rising Above the Gathering Storm”/ National Academies of Science/Presidential report/October 2005
“Beijing Rushes to Build World-class Universities” —Headline, International Herald Tribune, 1028.05* *Headline, same day: “China Bank Becomes a Giant Worth $470 Billion”
Re-imagine! Not Your Father’s World II.
“Income Confers No Immunity as Jobs Migrate” —Headline/USA Today/02.2004
“There is no job that is America’s God-given right anymore.” —Carly Fiorina/HP/January2004
Sydney Morning Herald/ 25October2005 Quantas. Lay off thousands of mechanics. Maintenance to China.
“There is no job that is Australia’s God-given right anymore.” —Tom Peters/10.26.2005
No Limits? “Short on Priests, U.S. Catholics Outsource Prayer to Indian Clergy” —Headline, New York Times/06.13.04 (“Special intentions,” $.90 for Indians, $5.00 for Americans)
December 9, 2005: “Ogre to Slay? Outsource It to Chinese” (New York Times, page 1—news section). The “factory”: Fuzhou, China. The workers: youngsters logging 12-hour shifts. Their clientele: youngsters from “Seoul to San Francisco.” The “work”: The Chinese youngsters are playing the early levels of video games for their affluent “clients,” who want to
avoid the pain and time associated with those annoying first few levels.
Developing Nations Lure Retirees, Raising Idea of ‘Outsourcing’ Boomers’ Golden Years” —Wall Street Journal, November 14.2005
“When I was growing up, my parents used to say to me: ‘Finish your dinner—people in China are starving.’ I, by contrast, find myself wanting to say to my daughters: ‘Finish your homework—people in China and India are starving for your job.’” —Thomas Friedman/06.24.2004
“In a global economy, the government cannot give anybody a guaranteed success story, but you can give people the tools to make the most of their own lives.” —WJC, from Philip Bobbitt, The Shield of Achilles: War, Peace, and the Course of History
Re-imagine! Not Your Father’s World III.
“A focus on cost-cutting and efficiency has helped many organizations weather the downturn, but this approach will ultimately render them obsolete. Only the constant pursuit of innovation can ensure long-term success.” —Daniel Muzyka, Dean, Sauder School of Business, Univ of British Columbia (FT/09.17.04)