In Two Volumes Volume II: Main Report



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Report No. 67991

Bangladesh:

Towards Accelerated, Inclusive and Sustainable Growth—Opportunities and Challenges

(In Two Volumes) Volume II: Main Report

June, 2012

Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Sector Unit



South Asia Region, World Bank



Document of the World Bank



ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This report was prepared by Zahid Hussain and Lalita Moorty (Task Team leaders, SASEP). The core team included Faizuddin Ahmed, Sanjana Zaman, Diepak Elmer, and Nadeem Rizwan (SASEP).
The Climate Change chapter was prepared by Emmanuel Skoufias, Syud Amer Ahmed, Sushenjit Bandyopadhyay, Nobuo Yoshida, Meera Mahadevan, and Shinya Takamatsu (PRMPR). James Thurlow (UNU-WIDER) provided valuable guidance. This report has also benefited from helpful feedback from Winston Yu (SASDA), Terrie Walmsley, Angel Aguiar (Purdue University), and Csilla Lakatos (US ITC). The team gratefully acknowledges funding from JOTAP (funded by DFID).
The Urban chapter was prepared by Elisa Muzzini, Pedro Amaral, Gabriela Aparicio, Richard Clifford, Mario Di Filippo, Wietze Lindeboom, and Mark Roberts (SASDU). The garment survey for the study was undertaken by NIELSEN (Dhaka). The team would like to thank the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, the Bangladesh Garments Manufacturers and Exporters Associations, the Bangladesh Knitwear Manufactures & Exporters Association, and the Bangladesh Export Processing Zones Authority for their support to the survey team and the managers and workers of the garment firms that participated in the survey. The team would like to thank Thomas Farole (PRMTR), Songsu Choi, Zahed Khan, Bill Kingdom, Bala Menon (SASDU), Martin Norman, Shihab Ansari Azhar (CSABI) for their valuable contributions. Tony Venables, Professor of Economics, University of Oxford, provided technical inputs to the team on the survey questionnaire. The team thanks Cities Alliance and AusAID for the funding for this work.
The team would like to thank the peer reviewers- Dr. A.B.M. Md. Mirza Azizul Islam (Former Finance Adviser to the caretaker government), Jorge Araujo (Lead Economist, LCSPE), Steve Karam (Lead Urban Specialist, ECSS6), Winston Yu (Senior Water Resources Specialist, SASDA) Andras Horvai (Country Program Coordinator, Bangladesh and Nepal) and Luis Alberto Andres (Senior Economist, SASSD)) for valuable comments and suggestions. The team would like to thank all participants of the stakeholder consultations held in Dhaka (see Annex – A for a list of all participants). We benefitted immensely from their comments and guidance.
The team also thanks the Government of Bangladesh for the cooperation extended in the preparation of the report and for their participation in stakeholder consultations. At the same time the team would like to acknowledge that the views expressed in this report are those of the World Bank and may not necessarily be the views of the Government of Bangladesh.
The team gratefully acknowledges guidance from Sanjay Kathuria and Vinaya Swaroop (SASEP). Ellen Goldstein (Country Director, Bangladesh and Nepal) and Ernesto May (Sector Director, SASPM) helped shape the strategic directions of this report.
Finally, the team thanks Mehar Akhtar Khan for formatting the document.

GOVERNMENT FISCAL YEAR

July 1 – June 30



CURRENT EQUIVALENTS

Currency Unit = Bangladeshi Taka (Tk)



US$1 = Tk 81.8 (June, 2012)

ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS



ACC

Anti-corruption Commission




IDA

International Development Agency

AGOA

African Growth and Opportunity Act




IGS

Institute of Governmental Studies

BASIS

Bangladesh Association of Software and Information Services




ILO

International Labour Organization

BBS

Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics




IMF

International Monetary Fund

BCCRF

Bangladesh Climate Change Resilience Fund




IOM

International Organization for Migration

BERC

Bangladesh Energy Regulatory Commission




IT

Information Technology

BIDS

Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies




ITES-BPO

Information Technology Enabled Services and Business Process

BMET

Bureau of Manpower, Employment and Training




KSA

Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

BTCL

Bangladesh Telecommunications Company Ltd.




L/C

Letters of Credit

BTTB

Bangladesh Telegraph and Telephone Board




LDC

Least-Developed Country

CAGR

Compound Annual Growth Rate




LF

Labor Force

CBN

Cost of Basic Needs




LMIC

Lower Middle Income Country

CCTF

Climate Change Task Force




LTU

Large Taxpayers Unit

CD

Custom Duty




MFA

Multi-Fiber Arrangement

CIB

Credit Information Bureau




MIC

Middle Income Country

CPI

Consumer Price Index




MLT

Medium Long-Term

CPRC

Chronic Poverty Research Centre




MOEF

Ministry of Environment and Forests

DCI

Direct Calorie Intake




MoEWOE

Ministry of Expatriates’ Welfare and Overseas Employment

EPZ

Export Processing Zone




MPI

Multidimensional Poverty Index

EU

European Union




MPRA

Munich Personal RePEc Archive

FDI

Foreign Direct Investment




NBR

National Board of Revenue

FY

Fiscal Year




NGO

Non-Governmental Organization

GATS

General Agreement on Trade in Services




OECD

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

GCC

Gulf Corporation Council




OI

Opportunity Index

GDP

Gross Domestic Product




OLS

Ordinary Least Squares

GED

General Economics Division




PKSF

Palli Karma Sahayak Foundation

GIC

Growth Incidence Curve




PPP

Purchasing power parity

GNI

Gross National Income




PREM

Poverty Reduction and Economic Management

GNP

Gross National Product




P-SD

Protective Supplementary Duty

GoB

Government of Bangladesh




PSM

Propensity Score Matching

GSP

Generalized System of Preferences




P-VAT

Protective VAT

HDI

Human Development Index




RD

Regulatory Duty

HIES

Household and Income Expenditure Survey




RMG

Ready-Made Garment

HRD

Human Resource Development




SDR

Special Drawing Right

HSC

High School Certificate




SFYP

Sixth Five Year Plan

IC

Investment Climate




SIMA

Shore Intermediate Maintenance Activity

ICA

Investment Climate Assessments




SMA

Statistical Metropolitan Area

ICRG

International Country Risk Guide




SOE

State-Owned Enterprise

ICT

Information and Communication Technology




SSC

Secondary School Certificate

SSNP

Social Safety Net Program




VAT

Value Added Tax

TFP

Total Factor Productivity




WDI

World Development Indicators

UAE

United Arab Emirates




WDR

World Development Report

UNDP

United Nations Development Programme




WTI

World Trade Indicators

USA

United States of America











Vice President:

Isabel M. Guerrero, SARVP

Country Director:

Ellen A. Goldstein, SACBD

Sector Director:

Ernesto May, SASPM

Sector Manager:

Vinaya Swaroop, SASEP

Task Team Leaders:

Zahid Hussain, SASEP

Lalita M. Moorty, SASEP


TABLE OF CONTENTS

I.Overall Growth Trends and Patterns 9

II.Sources of Growth 16

III.Bangladesh’s Growth Enablers 23

IV.Can Bangladesh Maintain Current Growth Rates? 32

V.The Prospects of Achieving Middle-Income Status by 2021 39

VI.The Challenge of Accelerating Growth 42

VII.The Way Forward 59

Appendix 1A: Methodology used in the Sources of Growth Analysis 61

Appendix 1B: Construction of the Variable ”Reform Period” 63

ITrends and Significance 71

VIII.Determinants of Remittances 71

IX.Impact of Remittances at Household Level: From Direct to Indirect Contribution 95

X. Remittance-Growth Nexus 98

XI.Migration Outlook and Policy Agenda 102

Appendix 2A 108

Appendix 2B: Methodology for Estimating Impact of 111

Remittances on per capita GDP Growth 111

Appendix 2C: Regression Results 115

I. Has Growth Been Pro-Poor? 127

II. How Has Growth Been Distributed Across the Population? 133

III. What Has Happened to the Distribution of Economic Opportunities? 137

IV. Labor Market Dynamics and Challenges 141

V. Policy Implications 146

Appendix 3A: Measuring Inclusiveness of Growth 149

IEx-Post Impacts of Climate Change on Growth 159

IA Micro Study of Household Adaptation to Climate 169

I. Introduction 186

II. Bangladesh’s Urban Space: Features and Implications of the Urban Growth Agenda 187

XII.City Competitiveness: Drivers and Obstacles Through a Private Sector Lens 210

XIII.Dhaka City Corporation 215

XIV.Dhaka Peri-Urban Areas 225

XV.Chittagong City Corporation 227

XVI.Medium and Small Cities 243

XVII.Building a Competitive Urban Space in a Global Economy: Strategic Directions 245


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